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Comment by Brendinooo | Hacker News Reader

I mean, if I hear the phrase "geopolitical unrest", I'm far more inclined to think "Iran"/"Russia" than "51st state".

If the point is to get your gold away from the US and its president, why leave ~19% of if there? Why take gold out of Canada? Why is a two-word phrase inherently related to the abrasiveness of the Trump administration towards traditional allies"?

And the bank's stated reason is: "Gold that is held with the Bank of England must meet modern international trade standards and is regarded as the world's most easily tradable gold and will therefore be the most readily available for DNB in a crisis situation. The gold reserves held in New York and Ottawa cannot be utilised as quickly and directly in such a situation." Why is that not the more plausible one, and the basis for the headline?

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Iran and Russia can both be tied to the leadership of the USA. Iran directly and Russia less directly. There may be trading between the USA and the Netherlands that makes 31% too much gold in USA but at 19% more reasonable. Over the past 4 years the price of gold has more than doubled this would effect the amount of gold needed to perform the same transactions.

I mostly agree with this; your comment paints a far more plausible and level-headed picture than the article does.

> I mean, if I hear the phrase "geopolitical unrest", I'm far more inclined to think "Iran"/"Russia" than "51st state".

Well, they're not putting it there, either.

First paragraph of their statement I think better summarizes their reasoning:

> In view of increasing geopolitical unrest, DNB is strengthening its crisis preparedness. Improving the liquidity and tradability of the Dutch gold reserves is part of these preparations. Moreover, a more balanced distribution of these reserves between North America, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands helps to spread risks and will make them more readily available for use in a crisis situation.

The goal is to make these reserves more liquid in the event of a geopolitical crisis. It’s easy to say that Trump was a factor in this decision given that he has been the cause of one geopolitical crisis after another. That hypothetical crisis doesn’t have to directly involve the Netherlands for this to make sense. For example, the price of oil shot way up because Trump decided to poke Iran and having more liquid reserves could make responding to that easier.

> It’s easy to say that Trump was a factor in this decision

I don't disagree with that. (I mentioned Iran, a crisis that was precipitated by the current administration.)

I disagree with "Experts say that rhetoric appears inherently related to the abrasiveness of the Trump administration towards traditional allies" and "Having those reserves in the United States is a potential vulnerability...You can absolutely imagine a scenario where, for whatever reason, the Trump administration decides to hold onto them" etc.

In addition to what superb_dev's comment says:

> If the point is to get your gold away from the US and its president, why leave ~19% of if there?

Not all of the risk is "the USA may literally steal it", some of the risk is "UK may elect Farage who could be just as bad", and there's a non-zero chance that Trump is kicked out come November.

With a diversified portfolio, economic planning can be done in terms of probabilities; this is different from e.g. military planning, because the "portfolio" your military defends is "your nation" and this is somewhat more binary in success-vs.-fail.

> Why take gold out of Canada?

Because Canada is one of the places Trump is directly threatening.

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