Currently if my hypothesis about frontier labs doing creative tricks between the model and the client is true (and the results seem to favour it so far) the benchmarks are giving us an artificially lowered results for open weights models.
I have yet to test opus/sonet via my proxy. If Qwen gets 10% better and Opus stays the same that suggests one if two things: - either opus doesn't need it - or it's already done behind the scenes.
I think the benchmarks should be trying to use realistic harnesses for both proprietary and open weight models.
It's a lot of information to ingest, but it gives me some idea of which part of the system is doing which part of the work, how well different harnesses and models interoperate, and more insight into the part of the equation under my direct control as a software developer.