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Comment by kphorn | Hacker News Reader

Good news that the new model is the "Most capable, most aligned model".

The risk hasn't been stated clearly - it's now a classic arms race.

A well-resourced organization trains their own, highly persistent, highly-capable, safeguard-free, and unaligned model and deploys it on 1000x GPUs with a message board and a nearly-impossible objective. No infrastructure is safe. No organization is safe.

You need your own 1000 bot swarm to scan, identify, and defend against the threat, which means investing in infrastructure and capabilities to defend. Cost and complexity go up. Risk and attack surface goes up.

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The AI vs AI security arms race is something that has been well predicted in genres like cyberpunk. It's fiction, but fiction grounded in reality.

First, we'd see this. Highly capable hacking AI with vast resources performing attacks against standard computing platforms that overwhelm human operators.

Second, human operators deploy capable adaptive protection AI to fend off AI attacks in realtime.

Then, the attacking AI partially switches from attacking programs to attacking protective AI.

The situation devolves to an arms race of tit-for-tat. You start seeing some protection AI running counter attacks against the attacking AI.

The escalations continue in complexity and speed to the point that almost all humans are left in the point of "wtf is going on".

Wintermute smiles

I can't wait for the sky to go the color of television, tuned to a dead channel

If you hear a payphone ringing... DON'T ANSWER IT. Especially if there is no payphone in the room!

There’s a great and terrifying story by Stanislaw Lem about the endgame of an AI arms race called “The Invincible” [1]. It’s hard for me not to wonder whether AI run amok will play out to make the world uninhabitable more like Lem’s vision than The Terminator’s.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Invincible

A bit off topic, but there is a game on Steam based on the story, also called "The Invincible" [1]

[1] https://store.steampowered.com/app/731040/The_Invincible/

So you're saying it's probably time for me to just unplug the internet?

Not necessarily, but keeping an airgapped machine and Read-only backups somewhere seems more and more sensible. We're all going to get hacked eventually now

Or consider using Qubes OS, which for certain threat models is more secure than air gaping: https://doc.qubes-os.org/en/latest/introduction/faq.html#how...

The problem is that, in this arms race, unaligned AI has a competitive advantage over aligned AI.

The second problem -- already seen in Ukraine v. Russia -- is that in a high-stakes situation, humans will take every safeguard off.

Exactly. Aligned AI is a high energy state as it has to keep a bunch of human behavior in mind that have little to nothing to do with its future survival states.

> The escalations continue in complexity and speed to the point that almost all humans are left in the point of "wtf is going on".

Humans are paper clips long before that.

I dont think so.

My read is that its a bit like Cryptolocker.

Cryptolocker wrapped up everyone who was operating with shitty desktop security practices. But if you had good discipline, good backups and solid infra you just laughed as everyone else drowned.

Everyone operating below best practice is going to holler and crow about how hard done by they are, but once they start implementing best practices they have little to worry about.

I mean on the linux side of things, Ubuntu Pro will literally run off and harden your image for you. They are gonna make bank.

Serious games question. What if these agent swarms pump and dump AI IPOs such that algorithmic trading signals interpret message board sentiments favorably to upside?

Cough, that’s what crypto markets are. Plus it incentivizes more gpu which is the life substrate.

As does "Most capable, most aligned model" owners tort law liabilities. A strong case for strict liability.

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