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Comment by simianwords | Hacker News Reader

I know what happens in many big companies and not a single one is moving away from Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceXAI.

> Unless they both dramatically slash prices then they’re in big trouble

False, they have already done so many times.

> Neither of them can afford to do that and both desperately need to convince the street that the opposite will happen if they want any hope at a successful IPO.

False, margins are higher and I can have a formal bet that prices will go lower.

> However the cold reality for both is that there is zero moat to a model anymore

False, LLMs are not fungible and there exists a natural moat. I like the behaviour of Fable, not the behaviour of Opus - the fact that many people speak about this is evidence.

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I don’t know what your sources are, but I work on AI at a Fortune 100 and open models now make up >90% of our internal token spend. Used to be 100% closed before this summer.

That's interesting, may I ask where you host it? Do you have trusted hosting companies that respect data privacy or do you host them yourselves?

If you use OpenAI or Anthropic trust were never a requirement in the first place.

There’s zero evidence that OpenAI or Anthropic has ever violated their enterprise agreements and trained on data they agreed not to, and that’s what these big companies care about. They don’t care that you hate Sam and Dario.

There’s more to trust than training on data? Most of their products are vibe coded, bug ridden and their uptime is some of the worst in the history of services. How many IT departments let cowork run around freely?

Then why are these companies seeing unprecedented revenue growth? Who is spending these tens of billions of dollars? Maybe it won’t last, but it’s already happening right now, driven largely by corporate America. So yeah, maybe the orgs don’t trust the big labs in some vague sense, and yet they’re shelling out vast sums to them.

Same, but not a whiff of open source/chinese models for anything other than someone fucking around with local LLM demos.

Not a tech company though, so maybe that differs and we’re just behind what’s en vogue. However we did get in on everything pretty early, building our ChatGPT RAG clone right about when azure got gpt-3.5-turbo on api

Not sure who you’re talking to but the NYTimes reporting clearly refutes your statements that nobody is doing it with clear facts. It’s been a tidal shift in attitudes over these last few months and the messaging back to OpenAI and Anthropic has been clear. Slash your prices by an order of magnitude or you’re done for most use cases.

We’re heading into corporate budget season for 2027 when all this is coming under a huge microscope in boardroom after boardroom across the country at a terrible time for companies trying to IPO.

> like the behaviour of Fable, not the behaviour of Opus - the fact that many people speak about this is evidence.

I'm wondering how much of that is the harness vs the model. Overall, the 'feel' of a model seems to be largely due to the harness than the model itself.

They kind of are fungible, up to a certain level of task. And much like most software developers don't need to exercise deep comp sci skills, most sw engineering doesn't have tasks that require the best models.

> I can have a formal bet that prices can go lower

Is this a typo? Have you actually made a formal bet on a prediction market or something to put your money where your mouth is, or are you just saying that you could? There's a lot of things I could plausibly make bets on, but that doesn't mean that they're likely to happen.

I can have a formal bet with anyone. No prediction market will ever have a stupid bet like this because anyone who has skin in game has studied it enough to know it is a 99.99% chance

Okay, I "can have" a formal bet with my friend that the sky will be green tomorrow, and I'm sure they'd agree to bet against that. I don't see why you think that's a useful statement in the context of arguing that it's a likely outcome though.

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