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Comment by ckdot | Hacker News Reader

10-20 years? I doubt it. There are a bunch of companies actively working in bringing AI into robots, so they can make your dishes. And so far progress looks quite good. Also, if enough people are going for the same backup plan it might not work out. Why should anyone book you as a personal trainer instead of the other 500 guys in town. And who is going to be able to afford paying you anyway?

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  > There are a bunch of companies actively working in bringing AI into robots, so they can make your dishes.

I know, I'm excited to buy the first relatively affordable ones.

  > Also, if enough people are going for the same backup plan it might not work out.

Sure, could happen. You can't really plan for the future -- we like to think we can, but the best you can do is set your goals and deal with the hand life gives you along the way.

  > Why should anyone book you as a personal trainer instead of the other 500 guys in town.

I'm not particularly worried about this, but that's an individual thing based on network/connections and life history that doesn't apply to everyone.

I’d be willing to bet any amount of money that there will be ~the same or more people doing physical labor in 10 years than today.

I doubt it. It’s not just America working on these breakthroughs anymore. Now we have two powers working at break neck speed to get to that point and the Chinese are making a lot of progress.

Eh robots will still be more expensive than human labor in a lot of the world

Those robots are a gimmick and they can only do prescribed tasks in a super constrained environment. They are cashing in on LLM hype right now, vision has had some advances thanks to transformers but we are so far away in terms of the hard stuff (dexterity and physical sensing) still.

Yeah humanity is doomed, for a first world citizen maybe because everything is gonna be so expensive (and worth to automate)

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