I don't feel my job is very safe anymore.
Jobs won't dissolve into the ether. If the human civilization system grows bigger and complex, it necessitates more people.
If humans were a high energy configuration in the evolution of intelligent systems, we'd never come into being. That Earth's ecosystem has begotten us indicates we're some low energy configuration for packing more information density into the energy flows from the Sun through Earth's biosphere.
Unless we create replicating machines, any machine system we build will only grow more complex by enabling more humans to work on it. We'd be in trouble if we somehow created autonomous self replicating and evolving machinery but chatbots built on natural language machine learning ain't it.
Even if we ignore the hinted possibility that the agents used to summarize the voluminous data may be acting deceptively (i.e. no snitching), the agents' summaries often 'missed the mark'. Maybe this is another example of 'taste', but it seems less subjective than arguments I've seen for that. It could be that an LLM is no better able to define 'usefulness' or 'relevance' to humans absent being told exactly what that is.
That is entirely not clear. Besides, these tools are limited to producing text and software. There is indeed a lot of employment predicated on producing a bloated output of text and software but this is not existential. Incentives will shift behavior.
But the idea that LLM based 'agents' will (1) be on par with a human using a computer, and (2) disruptively displace the workforce, well that's just not what we're seeing. Unemployment is down across the board, and these tools might be very useful but they are not displaying autonomous intelligence at all.
Oh good, so they can't produce images or do graphic design work. Thus it follows that movies being sequences of images are obviously completely safe. And since they can't synthesize sounds obviously things like voice acting, call center jobs, and certainly music production are entirely off the table. And it sure is a good thing they can't accept video and audio streams as input because otherwise we might need to worry about their application to robotics and all the trade jobs that could eventually be automated as a result. But those are 100% immune thanks to the aforementioned limitations. Yeah. Definitely. /s
> LLM based 'agents' will (1) be on par with a human using a computer
They are already substantially more capable when it comes to writing exploits and decompiling binaries than the vast majority of professionals. Sure a lot of that is raw persistence as opposed to novel reasoning but when it comes to employment prospects the "how" doesn't matter only the "what".
> disruptively displace the workforce, well that's just not what we're seeing
You would deny that we fast approach a cliff on the basis that we are not yet in free fall? Surely you see how absurd that is?
Since those are purely opinions, there's no point in debating them. Thanks for sharing though.
Whenever this deus ex machina rises from the GPUs and replaces us, you'll be proven right I guess.
Amusingly you appear entirely unable to contest any of the points I made about current (not predicted) model capabilities.
What does it matter what I say? You already showed bad faith in equating skepticism towards LLM as a path to "AGI" to refusing to acknowledge severe weather warnings. You're trying to drag this into some contest of egos.
It is still a matter of a novel technology that has some uses, is being feared as well as hyped as the harbinger of some computer genie, and the fact that I don't think it is and you do has no solution.
I mean. What is your point? Besides throwing mud at me, what would you have me do about it if you think that there it amounts to stupidity to doubt that LLMs can somehow become anything more than a statistical model of text that can be used to put out mediocre software, corporate copy, and expose the fact that bloated web apps built on dynamically typed languages can be cracked open by Kali linux boxes and simulated script kiddies?
You end up laid off either way.
Middle-management paper-pushing is hard to verify but nobody was verifying it exactly anyway. Few people really care if your proposal to do Thing A vs Thing B is 100% correct and fewer have the ability to tell.
A lot of software is easy/fast to verify, despite being important to verify.
But there's a lot of niches out there even in software and software-adjacent things where verification is slow, costly, and/or hard. Where an agent can't write mediocre code but speedrun its way through six iterations of unit tests, code fixes, test fixes, code fixes, etc.
And because their niches, there's room to carve stuff out. If you're OpenAI there's diminishing returns on specifically targeting the ability to one-shot every specific niche in the world.
E.g. cheap Chinese solar panels wiped out German solar panel industry but created massive demand for solar panel installation and supporting services and infrastructure.
It's not a good position to be competing with AI directly... But what can you do that compliments it? What new skills could you learn?
Adapt and prosper.
Be like water.
Edit: to those down voting me, I can't help but assume your stance is the opposite of what I'm saying, something like "be stubborn scream into the void and get wiped out". If you would rather smash your head against something outside of your control instead of focusing on what is within your control, and doing what you can to prosper, then you are sabotaging yourself. If you feel that is justified to such an extent that you want to surpress a suggestion to someone else to get work and grow, I can't help but feel you want people to suffer.
It doesn't replace your body or your mind.
I'm not talking hypothetically about a generation from now... I'm taking about this person fretting their job today.
We are so far from AI putting everyone out of work that your comment comes off as not well thought out.
What are we talking about here exactly???
And/Or, if/when they do replace cognition, there's essentially a "laserbeam of genius" and they'll point it directly at muscles and hands again, to replace physical labor.
Of course, nobody knows where this goes, but as a software developer I have never been more busy. I am still worried, but if software developers go down I imagine much of the white collar world will follow, no?