Just in time before major European continental war begin. Strategic move.
For the context : German airport was officially attacked by Russia . And that’s only one of many incidents. UK is on the radar of official Russian hawks for a very long time
For the context : German airport was officially attacked by Russia . And that’s only one of many incidents. UK is on the radar of official Russian hawks for a very long time
Russia has been weird for a long time, they are doing sub-threshold-of-war attacks for a while now.
But the USA? Outright threatening allies, talking about annexing some of them, making more threats against other allies who make moves to defend those allies? And he's got a known love for gold, started wars without bothering to inform allies he's now trying to punish for failing to provide help that he told them he didn't even want.
This is nothing new for anybody interested in the topic, its all very open and public (which is kind of the point I guess to manipulate public perception too). Every single secret service know this as 101 reality. In same way ie war in Ukraine started in 2014 in all measurable ways, not 2022.
US part... well its painful to watch, especially the incompetence or elephant-in-porcelain-shop part, of a shop that took many decades to build. But its good long term for Europe and rest of west - we became uber weak and over-reliant on US bases, their tech and power projection, and even if its 2026, influence not backed by real power means very little in actual world out there. Be provably strong or vanish seems to be mantra. Its smart to adapt to reality rather than expect the world to rearrange itself to some idealistic wishful thinking, however nice it may feel and however well it may have worked during easy peaceful times.
There's issues with defending the east flank. Namely, without taking full control of the Baltic Sea, Baltic States and Finland will run out of provisions in weeks.
You can buy incendiary armor piercing bullets that could take one down for $5, but strangely they've been utilized for decades.
Finland will run out of provisions in a weeks? How so? Will Russia control their western border?
When Russia wants to directly attack NATO they'll likely do exactly what the US/EU is doing and simply arm e.g. Iran/Houthis/etc with weapons/locations, let them push the button, and then go all Slava Allah or whatever while Russia is like 'oh we're not involved in this conflict you have with Iran.' Great precedent that's been set.
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That said I do expect Russia is likely involved in at least some of the incidents of weapons factories and other things that have been going boom, but it's always going to be done with plausible deniability - sleeper agents with no direct ties to Russia, and the like. They're not going to just start bombing planes in airports with drones.
No, it wasn't.
> That said I do expect Russia is likely involved in at least some of the incidents of weapons factories
They're involved in all of them.
> sleeper agents with no direct ties to Russia
This isn't a movie. They pay criminals to do criminal activity. They're not utilizing "sleeper agents" to burn down a building.
>When Russia wants to directly attack NATO they'll likely do exactly what the US/EU is doing and simply arm e.g. Iran/Houthis/etc with weapons/locations, let them push the button, and then go all Slava Allah or whatever while Russia is like 'oh we're not involved in this conflict you have with Iran.' Great precedent that's been set.
What does this even mean? Are you equating Ukraine with Iran and the Houthis?
But since I've been brainwashed by propaganda, perhaps you can enlighten me on what benefits you believe Russia would see for themselves in deciding to directly attack a NATO country in a way that would lack any plausible deniability. In particular you need to come up with some sort of argument here for how they might see this as viably resulting in an improved positioning for themselves.
Weidel would make a "Notwendige Politikwende" speech and that's it. They'll then cut social services and enact pro-business laws and make some noise about immigration until ordered by the industry to allow it.
Like you alluded to Meloni went from end of the world to business as usual in remarkably short order, and the same could viably if not likely happen with AfD as well, but the bigger change behind the scenes there is that her party went from 2% in 2013, to leading Italy today - and that gain came at the expense of the loss of power by whatever the older establishment was in Italy.
Under different angle they will tell this is Ukraine’s false flag attempt … oh evil ukriane , these bastards who try to survive how dare they are
Anyways still 0 political win , only losses . Current German government can’t defend themself and start talking NATO , that is again very unpopular among maga-Germans , since they hate USA
Several possible benefits. In the last months Russia has tried repeatedly to lure Nato to a response for their constant provocations.
This way they can claim that Russia is being attacked by Nato and 1) have an excuse to start a massive mobilization of their reserve soldiers planned for this fall and 2) activate the mutual defense treatise with China and NK so they force both countries to participate directly in the war.
- Zelensky has claimed literally every single year that Russia is planning a massive general mobilization. This has never happened nor anything at all like it. The latest claim will likely turn out as all others prior.
- Russia does not have a mutual defense pact with China, nor any sort of military alliance at all. In fact China could cripple Ukraine at any moment if they so chose. 'Ukrainian' drones are loaded with components stamped 'Made in China.' China has historically been, and remains, the world's merchant whose primary interest is themselves, as should be the case for all sovereign nations.
- Your scenario relies on Russia believing that they'd have a greater edge in a direct Russia + North Korea vs Ukraine + NATO conflict than in the current status quo of Russia vs Ukraine with North Korea and NATO playing significant but limited auxiliary roles. This seems highly improbably since they already had endless reasonable justifications to create this scenario if they wanted, and have constantly sidestepped it. By contrast this is the exact scenario that Ukraine and warhawks in NATO have been trying to create. But outside some unprecedented escalation from Russia, Western nations will never tolerate coffins being draped in any color except yellow and blue.
Russia already tested playbook by doing drafts on the street in limited regions . There’s plenty of videos just Google that . Seems like their strategy will not be all nation mobilized but rather hey , we do in one region , wait , switch to another , repeat .
NATO is half dead , and that’s the main goal of Russia , north Korea , China etc . If they attack the most weak enemy eg baltic counties and claim like hitler did : we achieved what we wanted we just want piece and we are ready to strike piece also with Ukraine , it will :
Prevent any reaction from the nato , since not that many countries within nato will be willing to defend Latvia or Estonia , especially if offense will be complete and successful. Who will defend Latvia ? Germany ? Doubt , Poland ? They do not have a modern army , they still buying tanks and submarines in the age of drones . And Russia do have lots of drones . More than entire nato by a lot of, not to tell if you deduct USA and Turkey , two biggest military NATO powers that will not be eager to defend Baltic regions . Imagine also that Iran will decide to use the moment and coordinate their offensive.
As a result , this few days war can effectively formalize end of NATO and the western world as it is .
Putin only has one good exit: to fake a strength that at this moment it does not have, and declare the "victory", in the current broke state of this mess. They would try to trick Ukraine to be polite and let them to keep the occupied territories. They would also need to ask the west to remove the sanctions pretty please.
I assume that after all the pain endured, Ukraine will refuse this solution of returning to the starting point where Russia ask for everything and concedes nothing in return. They would had endured all this fighting years and destruction all for losing a quarter of their country. Would be insane to accept this.
And the idea that EU, or Finland, or Poland will accept Baltic states being taken and Russia at their gates is just... hypothetical
Other possible outcome is that EU will not commit this mistake twice, knowing that they are the next in the menu in five years.
So we are again in a false end. Is very unlikely that the war will stop just at time for the midterms.
Putin is insane, is asking again Russian women to make more babies for keeping the war machine greased, and can't be trusted to keep their word to not invade further.
> That was a rather obvious false flag attempt, presumably from Ukraine.
Comparing that German airport "attack" by Russia to the 9/11 attack by Mr. bin Laden - would you say that all gold reserves should have been moved out of the USA back in 2001?
If a shooting war breaks out beween the US and the Bond Market, the gold isnt safe anywhere.
So high in fact that the operation malfunctioned. Precisely what a false flag would do.
The US indeed would like to expand the Ukrainian proxy war to the Baltics so it can carry out its own plans of getting various oil rich countries.
All that these stupid politics accomplish is that the AfD will have 35% in the next elections so Germany can enjoy Trump-like corruption and the industry can exploit people even more. At this point one wonders if the CDU is in on it and the AfD is secretly already part of the uniparty, public theater of forbidding the AfD notwithstanding.
> The US indeed would like to expand the Ukrainian proxy war to the Baltics so it can carry out its own plans of getting various oil rich countries.
What "oil rich" Baltic states are you referring to? Is the US going to takeover Norway?
Parts can be obtained from Russia by Russian speaking Ukrainians that are indistinguishable from Russians.
You are making up "oil rich" Baltic states. The comment said "various oil rich states", i.e. Iran and Venzuela.
I assume you volunteer for the front?
I'm not sure what the point of that is? I can order Russian parts online. Too many people watch movies and think all this subterfuge is needed.
> You are making up "oil rich" Baltic states. The comment said "various oil rich states", i.e. Iran and Venzuela.
I made up this quote up?
> The US indeed would like to expand the Ukrainian proxy war to the Baltics so it can carry out its own plans of getting various oil rich countries
What, exactly, are you referring to here? The US is going to expand the war in the Baltics to get the oil in Venezuela? How does that make any sense at all?
> No damage because they need the Antonovs.
Ok? Then blow up something next to it then, or some ground support people. Really make an impact and sell it!
> I assume you volunteer for the front?
Such an old argument that's never made any sense. I think there should be teachers, firefighters, police, doctors, etc. I do not need to become one of them because I think they should exist. I have, however, donated $XXk to Ukraine for their efforts, make donations to various groups on a monthly basis, and will donate another $5-10k from my Donor Advised fund this winter - all of which they need far more than some middle aged American dude showing.
I get that you are having problems dealing with your country's leadership making such horrible decisions, but pretending like it's all a big conspiracy is just detaching you from reality and will make the fall even harder for you.