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Imprecise and incorrect are the same thing when it comes to an exact science. His predictions include dates and that makes them binary. You can only be right or wrong. Being close is still incorrect, and he's not even close.

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Indeed. I’m baffled by the comments here. He predicted that a plateau had been reached multiple times in Spring 2024, and now more than two years have passed and capabilities have exploded since then.

He wasn’t being imprecise, he wasn’t “correct in spirit”, he was DEAD WRONG.

Unfortunately, anti-AI sentiment on HN is for some people so ridiculously pronounced, that you can get them to say the most insane stuff. I had a couple of people the other day responding to a sarcastic comment, agreeing that being an alcoholic is cooler than using AI.

Sad state of affairs. You cannot reason with these people.

Usually when people feel passionately about their beliefs, in disagreement to your own, it is because they are unreasonable idiots, unable to contend with different systems of values.

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