> But predictions need to be specific and falsifable.
This is only possible when the prediction is outside the system.
Inside the system, betting can change outcomes.
This is only possible when the prediction is outside the system.
Inside the system, betting can change outcomes.
For example, that french dude that bet on a prediction market what the temperature would be, then broke into the weather station at the airport with a hair dryer. The prediction was still specific and falsifable!