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>It’s almost Q3 and xAI has seen one of the biggest wipeouts in trading history.

It looks like it's down about 12% since IPO. That's not much of a wipeout. Didn't Amazon crash by 90+% peak-to-trough during the dot-com bubble?

>If anything people are increasingly trying to cut AI budgets and I wouldn’t know of anyone outside of OpenAI who has the audacity to run millions and millions worth of token compute for an eval run with no ROI (and probably no demand, because cheap/flash models).

Are you claiming this eval cost millions of dollars to run? That seems quite doubtful.

AI can be progressing rapidly and valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic can decline at the same time. In fact I would say that's actually the default scenario. If AI really advances rapidly then it will be quickly moot which company developped which model at what time - since AI will be largely progressing on its own.

> As much as I like the cautionary tale and I’m sure we need to take it seriously, AI is not progressing as fast as projected by these experts.

You provide no proof for this.

The (very irrational) stock market side of this says very little about actual scientific progress. Models keep improving as rapidly as before in their capabilities.

It also doesn't say much about actual business progress. R&D investments into AI are still massively going up (USD 1 trillion this year).

The main thing I see is that the sentiment towards AI-related matters among the general public has soured quite a lot. In words though, not in actions: It's not exactly leading to reduced usage by that same public. Quite the opposite actually.

With only ~5% of shares floated, the recent SpaceX drawdown didn't correspond to nearly as much economic value really changing as the headline numbers imply. The DeepSeek-caused Nvidia crash from 2025 is much more of a "real" loss (since mostly recovered).

I haven't seen any evidence that Anthropic is delaying its IPO; they're slated to unveil the public IPO prospectus in a week and start trading sometime in October.

But another 30-40% of SpaceX will come out of lockup in the coming months.

What happens when all of that tries to sell, after the market barely absorbed 5%?

> It’s almost Q3 and xAI has seen one of the biggest wipeouts in trading history.

Please explain how a stock currently trading above its IPO price is one of the ‘biggest wipeouts in trading history’.