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Comment by techpression | Hacker News Reader

The never ending creeping need for more power tends to have these results. EU will either collapse or become a mega state that will later collapse, the problem is mostly that people view things in terms of elections, but downfall happens during much longer periods of time.

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The most likely outcome is that the EU is more or less what it is now for the decades to come, and the lack of reform costs significantly in terms of progress, and that Europe misses out on leading key industrial elements and becomes less relevant to global affairs especially as a lot of so-called 'global south' countries become more successful.

The dynamic of Europe sending all the talent to US is probably just going to continue as it is.

Angela Merkel used to be my favourite politician because I thought she was so 'pragmatic' but I think in retrospect she was basically 'do nothing, kick the can down the road, don't rock the boat'.

In some ways, the 'second most dangerous' kind of politician because it's so alluring to even reasonable people.

The kinds of reforms that the EU needs ... which both re-instill a sense of national dynamism but at the same time provide even deeper integration other areas aka capital markets, defence ... almost nobody is talking about.

5 years into a conflict right on the borders, still can't get full sanctions, still buying Russian carbons, still can't get real access to that $100B Russian money, still totally dependent on the US, still have no proper munitions inventory, still don't have proper defence against ballistic missiles aka huge existential gaps in defence capabilities when the wolf is right at the door.

The CIA had to visit Kremlin few days ago to warn against NATO attack is basically admission that Europe, 80 years after WW2 is not fully sovereign. It was daddy DJT that still to this day, is the one at the table, doing the talking. Not Von Der Leyen, not anyone from Europe ... but an American.

The rise of 'ugly nationalism' may cause pro-EU people to rally and defend broken systems instead of reforming. There is a path through that storm that is a wining outcome however...

The EU is cooked unless they can figure out domestic industry. They currently have a US tech stack because they strangled Euro tech in the cradle, and now that things are rough with the US, they are looking to China to be their new, err, "trading partner". Anything other than realize they went way to far with "kill enterprise, embrace relaxation" mindset.

Trust beyond anything else, when money gets to be tight, and the lavish promised benefits of the state start to dry up, the member states will pull swords on each other faster than anyone else.

You know what, there is something about China i see people are failing to realize, but china is creating dependcy more than competency, they first makes you me and everyone depend on them, then, they will start to make rules at a point where no one will be able to object

That's called globalization. It was considered great while the world was forced to depend on US and EU companies.

It is not so much that "things are bad with US". Issue is that US is being destroyed by tech and techs money. The rise of US tech companies is literally one of main contributors to its descend.

EU should have been more protective and aggressive against US companies. But, reproducing US economy choices would just make EU get loose democracy sooner.

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