TLDR: what determines if we'll have an AI crash is whether the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs provide enough money to cover compute for these companies. Without IPOs, these companies cannot survive 2026 and this will have drastic consequences for the hyperscalers, datacenter companies, energy companies, ... ie. the "AI crash".

Anthropic: $100B, OpenAI: $150B (that's not market cap, that's what they have to raise with the shares they issue in their IPO). If they make this money, the AI crash is delayed, at least to 2029.

To give a point of comparison: SpaceX got about 85B in cash to spend from its IPO.

(This is assuming the datacenters ordered actually get built between now and 2030 or so. If not crash is guaranteed)