I agree with your reasoning that coding is a solved problem, or that it very soon will be.

While that has profound implications for the profession, I don't think it kills it outright—rather, it radically shifts the nature of the job.

Some have said that shift is analogous to leadership, creative direction.

Eventually we'll see models that excel at architecture, owing to extensive training on human prompts—harvesting both judgement and creativity.

Meanwhile with the underlying software infrastructure supporting it all, duplication of work is inevitable. On top of that, the feeling everything's cheap slop, nothing has meaning anymore.

It certainly doesn't paint a rosy picture. Is the whole thing a race to the bottom? Maybe.

So, here's my counterpoint:

For most, craftsmanship will no longer live in code going forward. Instead, it will live somewhere else. Where? I'm not entirely sure, but I strongly suspect it will still be part of the profession.