> A few degrees warmer in the ocean and El Niño becomes an incredible problem for half the world.
Ice age was only 6 degrees less than now, half of Europe was under ice
Ice age was only 6 degrees less than now, half of Europe was under ice
The current estimate is that we're heading for +3C warmer, which is gonna have some big impacts.
The last decade has seen a 0.48c increase in temperature and due to the decade base line shifting every year and it is increasing in pace.
https://www.intelligentliving.co/global-warming-acceleration...
The more realistic climate scientists think we will blow past 2c by roughly 2035. We are on track to 3c by 2050 and emissions growth has yet to stop despite all the additional renewables being built. This is why many have said next year with the flow on effects of El Nino that we will be getting a preview of 2035.
I keep hearing this, but not from the climate science community, but from laypeople. I don't understand it. I haven't yet heard reasonable physical mechanisms that would push us past 3C by 2050, when the mean expectation from major models is still ~2.7C by 2100.
We haven't even hit 1.5C yet, not as a running decadal-ish average, using "1.5C target" the way that climate scientists traditionally meant it. How are we going to add another 1.5C in the next 25 years? That'd require 0.65C/decade. I don't understand it. The math ain't mathin'.
For what it's worth, the link you cite talks about the reasons for the acceleration. But some of those reasons (El Nino, aerosols) lead to one-off pops that don't translate to higher long-term trends. Meaning, it would be reasonable to guess that the recent acceleration will taper off some, and we'll head back towards 0.2 - 0.25 C/decade from the current 0.35C/decade. But even if we keep up the current 0.35C/decade, we aren't getting to +3C until ~2075.
The reason you don't hear it normally is because laypeople like yourself don't understand you're being propogandised to, by climate scientists like Michael Mann.
If you look at climate scientists who aren't liars, like James Hansen, and don't use models with things like fantasy CCS in them (all mainstream climate models - designed to minimise bad outcomes in every imagineable way possible), you get the temperature rises we're seeing now. That's why everyone has been so panicked this whole time, trying to stop this like crazy.
Many laypeople understand this, they understand the real science, and that they are being lied to from every angle about how bad it is.
https://www.dpg-physik.de/veroeffentlichungen/publikationen/...
I'm not saying it's impossible - we all know there are some long tail uncertainties to climate projections - but for the most part, it's contraindicated by a lot of the evidence, both observed and simulated.