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Comment by ColdStream | Hacker News Reader

Long term it is a very tough position for the US. They need to run a trade deficit to keep the power of the US dollar, if that goes so does a lot of their world power.

More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?"

A huge part of the US's spending is on the military and that is used to stabilize global trade, that is so that the USD is still THE major currency. But recent moves looks like they are trying to keep that while also kicking out the struts that hold up the entire system. It is very illogical, maybe there is a bigger plan but somehow I don't think there is.

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> More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?"

The US is already behaving the way we expected China would if they become the king of the hill.

Pax Americana used to guarantee peace, prosperity and nuclear nonproliferation for the countries participating in it. Now we get threats of invasion, threats of being left to fend for our selves, cozying up to a country that is literally trying to conquer our neighbors.

I don’t think it’s anymore a question of _if_, the old world is gone and not coming back.

No, not remotely. They are showing hints of it.

The WH is running 'wars by executive order' - neither the population nor Congress support it.

I don't think he could every in a million years justify invading anywhere.

Only 'doing stuff from afar, with the air force and special operations' - at most.

We'll have to find out if he loses Congress in a few months, that may make things nary impossible.

The 'real test' for this entire thing is 'what happens after'.

Does the US go back to something recognizable?

Forever MAGA?

Remember - this stuff is not historically abnormal, granted, it took 2 world wars to get us to behave.

It depends on the 10 years after Trump is gone.

It could get worse, it could get better.

> If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?

Perhaps not, but if you just accept every abuse thrown at you, pretty soon the USA will be just as tyrannical as China. Sometimes having the self-respect to stand up for yourself is more important than the costs.

At the very least, if the US falls as a super power, it seems like we are heading to a tri-polar world (china, EU, USA), at least in the near to medium term. Its not like someone else is going to take over as the sole super power.

The nuclear NPT is will see mass withdrawals if the US can’t/wont provide security

Its certainly something to worry about, but i think its far from certain. Nato countries will probably shift to france. The non-nato countries strongly in the us sphere of influence are probably the biggest wories (e.g. japan, south korea) but there aren't actually that many of them.

There is no 'if' for 'the US can't/wont provide security'. Just look at the Gulf countries (or Ukraine, for that matter).

The whole 'security' was by intimidation, there is no actual meat on that bone.

FYI the USA is already more tyrannical than China by most measures that aren't freedom of speech.

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