On the other hand, "you're a prompt engineer or you're fired" just reeks of psychosis. Things will change, they will never be the same, perhaps the profession will contract. But there sure as hell will still be people thinking deeply about their code and crafting it.
Your hypothesis that your job is secure because the models hit a ceiling is based on seven months of observational history.
We've been watching the models get progressively better for years now. It's not going to stop in place.
In some amount of time from now, these models will absolutely require less hand holding.
It's as though everyone with your perspective isn't looking at the overall trend line. You're laser focused on just these last few months.
In just these seven months since Claude got good, I'm at $5M annualized at 65% MoM growth with 30% margins and plenty of opportunity to take that to 70%+. As a dev team of essentially one.
You're in a new game. Stop thinking with preconceived notions and take full advantage of it.
There are going to be a lot of winners and losers with this disruption. Don't lock yourself into the old regime because you grew up on newspaper.
When's the last time you worked as an IC? Is there any reason to take your opinions on "my job" seriously when downward pressure on salaries is only beneficial to you and whatever AI companies you're attempting to start?
"The world will be better off as a whole". Why do you think this? How are you contributing to making the world better with AI? Is there any reason that's not related to making money?
What you did a few years ago will likely dry up as a source of supporting you and your family. There is all kinds of new value to create in the world. Find the calling that is meaningful to you. Go cure cancer instead of plumbing widgets and wizbobs at 100k QPS active-active five nines SLA.
Just don't stay as a gas station pump attendant, butter churner, or elevator button presser.
And it's also wild that you assume what I'm doing doesn't bring value to the world. There's a film being released theatrically in a few months that directly incorporates what I've worked on. I've been a filmmaker for decades outside of tech and that is deeply meaningful to me.
“Directly incorporates” is pretty vague and still seems like it’s financial, but good for you. I hope it’s something that assists artists and doesn’t replace them. Personally it’s hard for me to find meaning in something like that, given the thread’s context of “I don’t even look at the code”. What craft was done? In what way is the movie better now? It’s cheaper?
I won’t endorse glee about anyone losing their job, even if it means people with a lot of freedom can throw things at the wall and see what sticks. Same story as always, it’s just faster now.
You don't look at the bytecode you produce. You don't know 99.99% of your stack. You are a master of abstraction and you always have been. This is just a different flavor of the same recipe.
You've got a tool that will let you execute at greater breadth than ever before. Like what it must've been like for the very first engineers who had access to the internet or the first libraries or package managers.
Job flux is demand finding new salients. Employment hasn't dipped as far as I can tell. There are more exciting opportunities now than ever before, you just have to step into it.
I apologize for misreading and pettily being condescending "in return".
I agree with the way you phrased it here.