I think I've worked with close to 200 software engineers close enough to get a good understanding of their abilities in my 20+ years in the industry. I think the current version of claude and chatgpt are more effective at writing code than about 85%, maybe up to 95% of them. That is to say, if you let me hire any of them for the cost of my Claude Max + Chatgpt subscriptions ($400 a month), I would probably hire less than 5% of them at that cost. I get more done, and with higher quality using Claude by myself than I would with a team of 50 average software engineers, and it takes less of my time to do it.
The industry is going to get rocked.
I think a company that right now has 10-20 full time software engineers will have 2-3 in 5 years, and realistically 2 of those 3 aren't necessary to get the coding done, they are there so you have coverage over vacations and redundancy when someone leaves.
The only reason I think offshore is going to be completely eliminated is it's too high friction to work with them. They are far away, you have to hire a firm to manage them which means hiring a manager on site as overhead, and they are awake when you are asleep (or pretending to be awake when you are awake).