Only if you do greedy sampling. With probabilisitic sampling (categorical sampling), you will end up with different trajectory just “mathematically equivalent”.
Edit: I just looked up the math, and actually the idea of speculative decoding is done in a clever way that fully preserves the probability distribution while still maximizing the acceptance rate of draft tokens. So I would have to disagree with OP and say that no, non-greedy sampling doesn't influence the trajectories.
If a model can output a “wrong” sequence with a certain probability p, then Dflash can also output the wrong sequence with the same probability. They wouldn't necessarily produce the same output from the same seed, but speculative decoding shouldn't be able to produce anything that the autoregressive model couldn't also produce when using a different seed.
Or am I misunderstanding something?