How are you defining highly effective? In the sense that a body will definitely lose weight when starved? Or in the sense that counting calories is broadly effective as a weight loss strategy?
The former is painfully obvious and entirely unhelpful, and the latter is provably false.
Anyway what's cute about this is that this isn't novel phenomenon. There are lots of parallels to this in other fields where often effective solutions do exist, but at a system level don't seem to work.
Telling people to diet doesn't fix population level obesity. Telling people about personal financial management doesn't stop people from accruing too much high interest debt. Telling teenagers to stop idolizing instagram influences doesn't fix body anxiety issues. Telling people to stop smoking/drinking doesn't fix addictions. 3-2-1 data backups absolutely work but people lose files all the time.
"general population doesn't have the discipline for it" — only that this feels somewhat condescending.
Let's agree that counting macros or going for calorie deficit is hard if it is not someones job. General population has other jobs, family, social life, other hobbies they enjoy more than fitness. It is not "just eat less" it is "spend considerable amount of time thinking about and planning your eating".
Nonsense. It doesn't take any more time. Just buy unprocessed, basic food, fruit and veg. When you open your cupboard, cook something tasty from what you have.
When you go to the supermarket, just don't walk into the aisles with snacks. Don't buy anything laden with sugar and fat.
Get into the habit of drinking black coffee instead of Starbucks' calorific drinks; it takes less than a week for your taste buds to adjust.
It's not rocket science. Just most people don't want to admit that every excess 100 calories they eat adds 11 grams of fat to their middle. Which adds up week by week, year by year.
But even with this kind of food, if I figure "sure, lemme have a sugary ice-cream", two hours later I'll be looking around the fridge and cupboards for some "quick bite".
Just don't buy this crap. I find it's much, much easier to have none at all than to hope to be "reasonable" and only eat a bit.
I have the problem that I absolutely abhor most fruit and veg and would rather not eat anything (which you can do for a couple of days at most). It's hard to get full on onions and sundried tomatoes.
Because for me it sounds like you might have awful lot of time to figure out your life.
In my previous and current post I am writing about an average person. I am pretty well off myself — what I was writing about I am far from dropping advice "just do X" on less fortunate. Because what is easy: "writing someone should do XYZ".
If you turn things into individual discipline problems then surprise you get population level issues. As you pointed out people have other things to focus willpower on thats not this.
The fault, as it often does, lies in marketing. Turns out heavily marketed, hyper palatable food, designed to be minimally satiating so you maximally over eat is great for profits and terrible for obesity.
If your maintenance calories are 2700kcal and you eat 300kcal less than that, is eating 2400kcal starving for you?
Most people cannot tell a difference if they eat 100-150kcal less in a day.
>Or in the sense that counting calories is broadly effective as a weight loss strategy?
Yes, it is, and the reason people fail with it is not because calorie counting doesn't work, but because people's maintenance calorie estimates are often poor.
Deficit = maintenance calories (TDEE) - calorie intake
In this, even if your calorie tracking is on point, a deficit requires you to have a decent estimate of maintenance calories.
To throw a monkey wrench into all this, your maintenance calories often shift downward as you progress in your "diet" journey.
It's already factored in our algorihtm: https://macrocodex.app/knowledge/macrocodex/smart-calorie-bu...
I would have thought that it would mostly be because they can't resist that extra snack.
Or 'optimistically' underestimate the calories in the not pre-packaged food.
Serious question: Is there a significant variability in how the food calories are absorbed? Maybe different combinations are not absorbed equally efficiently (like with water/oil-based vitamins)
This is a pretty good inadvertent explanation for why a lot of people come into this discussion waving around morality arguments, lack of discipline, etc.
The average person gains a couple pounds a year. Adds up. How many calories do you think that is, amortized throughout the year? I'll help you with the math. It's 19. The average person eats 19 calories per day beyond maintenance.
It's not "weak willed slob cannot resist that extra snack."
I feel like discussions like this attract a number of people who've never actually been overweight and then lost the weight and tried to keep it off longer than a year. So much bro science, so much condescension, so much smug analysis that anybody who cannot resist their own body's hunger indefinitely are just weak.
A bit more complicated than that, CICO is not the answer. It's an observation, not a strategy.