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>There's also a big El Niño event, the Wikipedia page on the heatwave currently expressly denies that this contributed

But isn't that accurate? The ENSO is a specific phenomenon in the Pacific and it's not clear to me how that would impact the EU in such a direct manner.

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Yes, the main effect of a strongly positive ENSO on Europe may be a reduction in polar vortex instability, resulting in a milder, wetter, and more storm-prone winter.

But given the remoteness of the Pacific and all the other sources of variation in European weather, it's a fairly weak signal with lots of uncertainty (and there's no clear signal at all for summer weather).

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