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A lot of that demand could still flow through to AWS, Azure, etc. Maybe not at some startups, but I'd expect bigger companies would still use the hyperscalers even if they move off OAI/Anthropic.

The real problem for the hyperscalers would be demand stalling out entirely (or maybe small local models getting good enough that people don't use the cloud).

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The infra expansion of the hyperscalers is predicated on, and financially justified by, the presumed future growth of OpenAI and Anthropic, and their projected revenue. If the latter is not going to happen, I expect OpenAI and Anthropic to go bankrupt, which will trigger a restructuring of the hyperscalers, which should flood the market with either training HW or training capacity at very low cost, and it's not necessarily the hyperscalers that will benefit the most: I believe some of the GPU clouds are using HW leased or bought form NVidia, and running inside second-tier datacenters, not the hyperscalers.

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