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Comment by JimmyBuckets | Hacker News Reader

The UK was a declining power that had been absolutely gutted by war and owed huge debts to the US that it had accrued to fund the war. I believe Thucydides Trap is more about the situation we have now with the US and China where both are moving from strength to strength.

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I'm not really seeing the USA moving from strength to strength lately TBH. Iran is a disaster, the Navy now has 3 (or 4, depending how you count) failed warship projects in a row, economic growth outside the AI/datacenter boom has dropped to near zero and the internal political climate is polarized to the point of inactivity. Most of its traditional allies have been moving to distance themselves from the USA and worldwide trust in the USA as "leader of the free world" is at the lowest point in decades.

But quite beyond that, I'm just saying that the Thucydides trap is not an iron rule. The first place I looked was a counterexample and I'm sure there have been many more over the centuries.

AI is revolutionizing millions of white collar tasks - billions and billions of $$$$ labor requiring years of training, and making those workers wildly more productive. And its impact on robotics hasn't even started.

US is also taking leadership in space, which has deep military implications, telecomm and (maybe?) natural resources.

Lastly, it's a big mistake to write-off the US labor force and consumers, who react very quickly to change.

“The mantle of command”, a FDR biography, goes into some detail on this point. Good read.

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