Netflix Has Peaked

I can see a lot of the smaller services folding into each other or just giving up over the next few years as they can no longer be sustained. I mean how long can Paramount hold out? Apple TV+ might be able to ride on the coat tails of the rest of the business but I could see them eventually licensing their content to Netflix or anyone that can keep the line going up.

Funnily enough Sony has been the one major hold out in that they are more than happy to license their content but haven't dare put their foot into the business as they have been burned in the past before. Remember Sony's Music Unlimited? Yeah, they learned their lesson from that.

Netflix's moat is their scale. Nobody else has that and it will be very difficult for anyone to come up from below without a back log of content, and even that isn't enough if you don't have said scale.

Maybe the future will be a silly bizarre combination of Netflix, Hayu and Tubi and that's it. Don't take this prediction seriously.

A unique combination of: Content flywheel and spend scale, personalization, global production and local content infra, tech infrastructure, culture.

But their real edge is that they’re a pure-play. Everything is optimized around streaming.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49275746