Everyone hears 'winters will be up to 10C cooler', but few realize that this will also cause the jet stream to be more wavy, and exacerbate the number of heat waves as well.
Sad that europe's mild climate is about to get a whole lot worse...
https://climatetippingpoints.info/2026/05/06/news-explainer-...
> Overall though, there is some common ground in recent research: evidence for AMOC weakening having begun is growing, albeit is not clear in every AMOC metric; a substantial decline is expected with current emissions, that over centuries could potentially push the AMOC to a slow ‘shutdown’ state; and there remains a real but uncertain chance that this slowdown could pass a tipping point beyond which this shutdown is locked in, even if warming is halted or even declines. Exactly how much and quickly the AMOC is weakening, and the likelihood of it reaching a tipping point, remain much more uncertain, but what we do know is enough to justify concern and action to reduce the risk of AMOC shutdown
The % likelyhood by x date predictions have swayed back and forth as we've adjusted our predictions of which emissions path we actually wind up following.
Last updated in June.
My whole concern with the AMOC is that given it's a non-linear system, and we've seen evidence of 'fast shutdowns' in the climate record before, I fear we are sleepwalking towards an event that could have catastrophic consequences for the global south, and problems there do not stay there. People flee rather than starve.
I also worry what happens to western liberal democracy under the weight of that influx if we're already seeing populism from today's level of migration.