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The real sham has yet to materialize. You only get a single $1T IPO. For the AI labs, investors are tapped out, and the only thing left is a huge IPO. Google, Meta, Microsoft's cash reserves are drying up, they're squeezing operations for every cent, and sure they can issue some stocks to raise cash, but not $1T.

I think this bubble's failure mode matches that of a Ponzi scheme.

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Not to imply that AI spending isn't a bubble, but there's a difference between cash rich tech giants going slightly free cash flow negative, and a company like Oracle that's all in.

Apple is sitting it out, Google and Microsoft are not taking existential risks relative to their resources, Meta is doing who knows what but it won't break them, and Oracle's fate couldn't happen to nicer people.

The Fed can still declare some kind of financial emergency and increase the money printing again. My guess is this is likely, given the sway that tech CEOs have over the White House, and the reality of overseas competition.

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