It's also hard to predict how much money will be burned going down wrong avenues. The internet was the future, but it took a lot of failed companies to eventually land on a sustainable model that brought us the giants we have today.

Railways were also the future, but that didn't stop a rush to build out (often subsidized) lines that were ultimately uneconomical (either because they were corrupt or the planned settlements never arrived).

If AI is similar, then there's going to be a long slowdown on compute spend until the surplus is worked through. A good historical analogy could be the fiber optic buildouts of the late 1990s. The demand for data never really went down much, but the industry eventually commodified and took down some large companies (Nortel, especially)