but now I think they probably have bitten more than they can chew.
Apple already proved with their unified memory - that as long you have the capacity you can run capable models locally - thereby goes demand for inference if everyone is running some model locally.
For training - Chinese models have proved that you don't need the latest & greatest in Nvidia hardware. Same as TPUs.
only time will tell.
They are also a robotics AI company with Omniverse. They are also an AI company with Nemotron. They are also a bleeding edge network equipment company after the Mellanox aquisition.
They stand to make a lot of money if they succeed in every venture. Good for Jensen taking risks and driving innovation, I hope they succeed in chewing even 50% of what they bit off.
This is the inherent downside of such a rapid rise to being the world's most valuable company AND still being considered a growth stock. At their massive scale, the number of new adjacent businesses that have both sufficient size and potential growth is limited.
> I hope they succeed in chewing even 50% of what they bit off.
Anything approaching that is vanishingly unlikely. They're being forced to play the game more like a VC. The question is if a few unicorn winners can offset dozens of losers. The challenge is that, unlike a VC, their bets are much more correlated around AI.
The absolute fastest desktop Mac GPUs cannot beat an Nvidia laptop GPU in prefill or inference speeds. Apple Silicon is a non-entity for professional datacenter deployment and arguably unusable for frontier models at agentic context sizes. AMD is Nvidia's primary worry, and they're not doing much better in terms of GPGPU SOC compute.
You can believe all you want that the dinky little jetson boards were desktop grade when historically the ARM SoC portion of a jetson board couldn't even keep up with broadcom/rockchip SoCs. It's taken until recently for the actual arm compute portion of Nvidia SoC's to be worth a damn at all, and they still fall far behind Apple let alone the rest of the pack like Qualcomm/Samsung.
You can believe all you want that good single-core performance will corner the edge compute market. It hasn't, Graviton has more buy-in than any Apple Silicon chip ever got.
Nvidia dropping from being a $5 trillion company to a $242 billion company would be 1929 levels of bad.
Global economy end of days stuff, especially since Nvidia can't crash that hard without a lot of other stuff crashing with it.
And I am pretty sure that their value will drop in 5 to 10 years.
https://stockanalysis.com/quote/lon/VWRA/holdings/
That is an astounding figure and means markets are highly imbalanced, unless you think Nvidia represents 5% of the global economy.
That’s still a lot, but “the global economy” over the horizon where those earnings are not discounted to 0 contains a lot more than what’s listed in VWRA today.
This consolidation is scary. I've started putting a little bit in emerging markets and China. I cannot trust the US long term, hopefully I'm wrong!