I’m actually talking about the period from 1950-1980 on the chart labeled: “Percentage of married men by race, 1950–2024”
You can see the collapse of black marriages started earlier and is steeper than other demographics — though eventually white marriages enter a similar decline, along with Hispanic marriages. (Asians hold roughly equal.)
This strongly suggests the effect is correlated with poverty and not race — especially with the white effect starting during the collapse of US manufacturing.
But if we agree the correlation is with poverty you haven't refuted my point — as welfare is a strong incentive structure on those experiencing poverty. That chart is perfectly consistent with what I said.
So your criticism is wrong at two levels:
- you didn’t even discuss the correct time period
- you showed data consistent with my claim