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Comment by amelius | Hacker News Reader

If defensive weapons don't work because too expensive, then the only way out seems to be M.A.D. which Ukraine can only attain if they join NATO.

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Not the only way. Sending drones against Russia's oil industry and logistics centres is having a pretty spectacular effect too, and Russia's having no luck defending against those either.

It's a numbers game and I don't know if the numbers are in favor of Ukraine anymore, given this lack of defense weapons.

My point is that conventional strike can provide a meaningful deterrent, even without the NATO umbrella or a domestic nuclear capability. If Putin had known in 2022 what this utterly gratuitous war would end up costing Russia, there's no way he would have gone ahead with it.

The problem is this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/30/us-firm-drone-...

If you can't defend yourself, then it is increasingly difficult to attack.

You seem to be only applying this observation to one side, though. Russian arms manufacturing has come under attack too.

I have no idea what a drone factory is, but my mental image is a building with drone parts on one side, people assembling with glue, screwdrivers and soldering irons in the middle, and finished drones in boxes at the far end. It that building is destroyed by a missile you've lost a few drones and a building. No people were hurt, so just move to a new building.

The images out of Russia are a little different. Billions of dollars of plant and equipment blown up, hundreds of ships disabled, entire Wildberry warehouses covering acres going up in smoke. It doesn't seem to be in the same ballpark as a few days outage while you move stock and employees to a new location.

Maybe I'm missing something.

Numbers have never been in Ukraine's favor. With provided funds and tech by EU and US to mass produce long range weapons Ukraine managed to shorten the gap somewhat, but they're still losing, and they're a "zombie" country that is still afloat just because tens of billions are pumped into their economy and military every year.

It depends a bit how you calculate your numbers. Ukraine vs Russia, Russia wins. Democratic world that doesn't want dictators invading it vs Russia, democracy wins.

You don't have to go to MAD, just retaliate on a similar level. Ukraine should have ballistics that can hit Moscow soon. There's also hitting the launchers and missile factories though I'm not sure Ukr has the ability to do so.

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