Comment by colingauvin | Hacker News Reader

Comment by colingauvin | Hacker News Reader

They must really be feeling the commoditization pressure. I'm not sure what the way out of this is, ChatGPT and Claude are still good products, but they are not necessarily premium products anymore.

I expect a few things to happen in the next year:

1) Exclusive MCP server deals/API integrations

2) Significant switch to B2B marketing, even moreso than we've seen before, with API interfaces being paid and chat-client interfaces becoming more and more free, perhaps just with limits more on integrations or data visualization/analysis

3) US restrictions on B2B contracts with non-US hosted models that do any sort of contracting with the government

Obviously there's a bunch of stuff I'm not foreseeing. But it really does feel like the bottom of the market is collapsing into free. I assume OpenAI and Anthropic think their next generation of models will restore their halo tier status and that the cash burn is justified to just get there, but this has to really mess up IPO plans.

I'm not sure I agree

1) Back then, even as a free user you'd be able to use the strongest model (even if with tight limits). Now, you need to pay to use Sol, and you need to pay to use Opus or Fable. It does seem fairly premium in that sense. Idk about 5.6 Luna, but the previous Instant was really bad, even for very casual users. It would hallucinate non stop.

2) When $100 and $200 per month plans launched, they were received as outrageous even here. Nowadays they are pretty common among power users.

>1) Back then, even as a free user you'd be able to use the strongest model (even if with tight limits). Now, you need to pay to use Sol, and you need to pay to use Opus or Fable. It does seem fairly premium in that sense. Idk about 5.6 Luna, but the previous Instant was really bad, even for very casual users. It would hallucinate non stop.

This is kind of what I'm saying though. Bottom has fallen out, differentiation is just can you be much more premium than the competition. Currently that remains unanswered.

EDIT: I'm basing this off the assumption that for chat, premium is not a point of differentiation at all. For coding/analysis, it is.

especially when 99% tasks don't need fable, and certainly not the next model

I also scoffed at the ChatGPT $200 Pro plan back then.

Back when coding for me still meant copy-paste from the web version, it was only worth the $20/month for me.

They only added the $100 Pro plan in April during GPT 5.4 times.

Today I happily pay $400/month for Codex and Claude Code.

Don’t say the last part out loud or it will be $800.

With Kimi K3 and Qwen 3.8 Max on their heels, I think the only way they can pull that off is by selling much better models.

I use K3 a lot, it is far behind Fable imo. For personal projects I use Kimi and for anything that matters I use Fable.

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