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He also speaks to Flash/RIA being a dying art, but I wonder what would be harder for the user: installing one of the RIA plugins, or upgrading your entire browser to support HTML5? I reckon the latter, and the penetration rates for HTML5 will be solely be dependent on existing Flash/social sites like Youtube, Vimeo, etc making the switch themselves.

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35 million netbooks will ship this year, and that's set to rise to 139 million by 2013[1]. Say some of the main models were to ship with Android[2], or even a webkit-based or Firefox 3.1 (coming soon[3]) browser... then imagine that sites like Facebook and YouTube were to start serving up the VIDEO tag to compatible user agents. All of a sudden there is a lot less incentive to fight with binary flash plugins (when everything else is open source).

This could well happen virtually overnight.

Sam

1. http://www.abiresearch.com/press/1355-35+Million+Netbook+Shi... 2. http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/asus-developing.html 3. https://wiki.mozilla.org/Firefox3.1/Schedule

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