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Comment by reverius42 | Hacker News Reader

There are plenty of 2010 Toyotas still out there, running great, if you want one. The market has instead demanded more different-looking cars (for variety), and generally larger vehicles with a higher riding position, not to mention newer creature comforts like air conditioned seats, and safety features like beeping at you when a car is in your blind spot and you try to change lanes.

The evidence that this is what the market demands is that Toyota is selling tons of new vehicles, despite the 2010 Toyotas still being available (used) for a lot less money.

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> There are plenty of 2010 Toyotas still out there, running great, if you want one.

That's not my point. My point is that the billions poured into designing the three new generations of Toyota since 2010 did not have to be spent by Toyota.

But they did spend it, to design new cars, with little to no actual improvements, and so they have had to price their new cars appropriately, to recoup the cost.

What would a brand new Toyota cost today if billions of dollars were not spent in designing a whole new car, with all new incompatible parts, and all-new jigs? Would we still be looking at $40k for a brand new car?

That is what Dacia is to Renault, the tech from the previous model. Still, Renault is vastly outselling Dacia.

My point isn't that you, personally, don't want to buy a used 2010 Toyota. My point is that everyone, collectively, doesn't want to buy a used 2010 Toyota -- and Toyota has correctly deduced that they also don't want to buy a new 2010 Toyota in 2026.

> and Toyota has correctly deduced that they also don't want to buy a new 2010 Toyota in 2026.

We cannot tell that for sure, because that 2010 model is not being sold new anymore.

I'm working off the assumption that the billions in dollars spent on developing the new generations are reflected in the price of the new generations.

Maybe I'm wrong, and the $40k on a new Toyota comprises only $1k to recoup the development cost, but I'm pretty certain that a market exists for a 2010 model Toyota sold new in 2026 for a lot less than the current-gen.

China has done this with their Haval brand. The new model is manufacturer and sold concurrently with the model it is replacing, and the price difference is significant.

There are quite a few dozen auto manufacturers. Why is Toyota one of the largest global sellers? Why hasn't a competitor simply made a "good enough" car and sold it in perpetuity, raking in higher profits than the manufacturers who keep adding features and redesigning the sheet metal?

The improvements were for things governments (fuel/pollution efficiency) and insurers (safety) wanted, not necessarily you.

A new 2010 Toyota likely wouldn't even be legal to sell today in many jurisdictions, and this is in fact one part of the problem.

Another part of the problem is that all the big automakers need to design a new car roughly every 5 years in order to keep from losing the ability to design one at all, as people age and retire. What's really been settled on is that "minor updates every year and a major update every 5-6 years" actually does work in terms of keeping know-how to design these things, as well as handle supply chain problems.

For example, if a chip you need goes EOL and you have to redesign around that, it's much better to have that happen in the last 1-2 years of your manufacturing, you do a last time buy to get through that last year, and move on. Much harder to do on a longer lifecycle: that 2010 design, sold new in 2026, and operated until 2040+. How many suppliers go out of business over 30 years, or stop making a critical component?

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