What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?
stlouisfed.org
stlouisfed.org
COVID and AI are great examples of what's wrong today. We created an incredible global communication network that lets us all collaborate across the world, used it to work through a pandemic, found a better work-life balance and saved hours of commuting and pollution daily. Now everyone is being forced back to the office. Like we all lived through this period right, we remember how much more pleasant it was to be able to work remotely, and its now been snatched away for no good reason? We made technology that can save us 2 hours of commute a day and then throw it away because office buildings go empty?
AI made many of us 2x more productive (conservatively), but where is the increased salary or bonus or reduced working hours for this productivity? All the gains are outcompeted or flow to companies balance sheets. We created this incredible technology and are rewarded with crushing expectations and FASTER FASTER FASTER as usual. Like we've made this miraculous technology that can do so much work for us, but it has made our work harder not easier? Why?
Most potential workers would have to be insane to be invested in a system like this. All the gains flow to the top, everyone else gets crushed. I feel like a hamster in a wheel that keeps spinning faster and faster. All the technology and productivity should be making our lives better, should be making us happier, but everyone is poorer and more depressed now. It's clear that corporate power, inequality, politics is the reason that's happening.
.. people wonder why the DSA is making so much noise and wonder why the 'mainstream' democrat party is not.
See the 1833 [1] bill that limits work-shift for children aged 9-13 to 8 hours a day. The fact that (most) developed countries settled for 40 hour work week was a huge progress. The fact that we did not shortened the workweek in the last 100 years is sad to say the least. The gains in productivity were shared with the employees right up until 1971 [2].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factory_Acts#Ashley's_Bill_(18... [2] https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
studies keep showing numbers closer to -0.2x more productive. But your point stands, since those in charge of assigning our salaries think it's more than 2x.
I'd literally rather live in the back of a pickup than have to keep getting woken up at 1am to reboot a server in Iowa because that's cheaper for my boss than getting a second instance.
At some point I inherited some money and bought a shack in the desert, and now I am studying to be an EMT and I volunteer at a free clinic... today got to help a doc sew up a hobo who got into a fight, which was beyond interesting for sure. I get enough money from some investments, an audio production business, and doing festival stuff (either first aid or audio).
Fuck the US, and fuck its working culture. It's sick. When I had to play along with it cause I had kids to raise and needed some stability, I put on a happy face and did the thing.
But there is no reason to do that if you don't have too.
For context, I am 48.
"if you cannot afford it, stop complainingb and live elsehwere" they say...sure...but a commuter train into Manhattan can run you $30-50/day. Add in parking at the commuter train station and you're down about $60 or more a day.
Now suppose you eke out some net saving -- you've unqualified yourself from medicaid health insurance now. Your net savings may not even pay for your medical deductible.
There are a lot of reasons to just not bother unless the salary can get beyond all these hurdles.
Homemakers aren't doing nothing, they're just not represented.
When people say that, I think they mean "get another job in another city that doesn't require a commute to Manhattan."
There is another reason people stick to major job centers -- because it is extremely risky moving to a 2nd or 3rd tier job center. You have to sign a 1yr lease on an apartment and are locked in. But your job isnt guaranteed for a year. There may be few or no other jobs in 2nd or 3rd tier job centers. Say you default on your lease -- now you have a way bigger problem because you cannot rent again (you have bad credit) and you also need to pass credit checks to get a job. https://www.nerdwallet.com/finance/learn/credit-score-employ...
Ultimately we all need to realize people are rational (NOT lazy) -- people are doing the math and the math aint mathing. Hence the "Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation"
Picking one of the most expensive places in the planet (Manhattan) as your example isn't helping you much. Lots of well known cities are much cheaper. When people I know move to, say, Tennessee, they're not working minimum wage. Ditto Kansas City, almost any Texan city except Austin. St Louis, Louisville, etc.
Until recently, even the Chicago Metro was still among the more affordable places for white collar workers - where you could buy a 2000 sq ft house and not go broke over doing so. I don't know if it's still the case, but it was still cheaper pre-pandemic than any of the cities in the Western states.
Edit: Just confirmed - Chicago is still cheaper. Affordable houses, in good neighborhoods.
I have multiple relatives making $60k or $100k and can barely survive once you introduce healthcare co-pays, deductibles, rent, pharma copays, etc.
Please, for a moment, consider that you are a techie possibly making $250k $500k, or more and there are people suffering who making a third or a fifth of you. Consider that you might be single but there are others with kids. Also consider that you might have a Platinum healthcare plan but others have "healthcare" with 10k deductibles per familymember.
Do you think there are no minimum wage workers in Manhattan? Or do you think someone making minimum wage could afford to live in Manhattan?
I know I'm speaking from a rather (somewhat) privileged position. I myself don't consider working beyond 50 years of age. I have lived frugally/minimally and am confident that (unless WW3 happens or some sort of unexpected global catastrophe arrives) I can FIRE (retire frugally with my savings) before I hit 50.
I also know it's somewhat of a bubble, but Reddit has a lot of subreddits (like r/HENRYfinance/; r/Fire/; and r/coastFIRE/) dedicated for folks retiring early.
Observing that FIRE trend and the fact that AI psychosis (don't get me wrong, I believe AI is useful, but not to a level that humans will be entirely replaced) at work place will surely drive some folks away (or at least discourage them) from staying in the work force, I am not surprised that this trend is showing up in the data. Plus, a lot of millennials are child free (by choice), so they can afford to retire early as well.
I have no desire to keep working for random "Mikes" and "Bobs" in upper management that only care about their bonuses and stocks. Not in Big Tech, not in random startups, not anywhere else. "Mike wants this", "Bob wants that"... Gosh, I couldn't care less about their "direction"!
My days are now full of self-imposed challenges and interesting projects. Am I in the labor force? I guess so, but I'm working for me and humanity now.
Time is the most precious asset we all have, folks.
I just turned 50, but I never feel I can pull the trigger. The only thing really keeping me from doing it is the cost of health insurance. I've got 15 years before I can get on Medicare, and 15 years of privately purchased health insurance for the family is just not do-able.
> I have no desire to keep working for random "Mikes" and "Bobs" in upper management that only care about their bonuses and stocks. Not in Big Tech, not in random startups, not anywhere else. "Mike wants this", "Bob wants that"... Gosh, I couldn't care less about their "direction"!
Agreed! That's one of my motivation to retire early. :)
We got lucky and just happened to inherit my in-laws estate the very week that I was let go in my company's third round of layoffs. Spouse and I decided it was best to take some time away from tech and see what happens from the AI bubble.
Two years later, I'm ready to work again, but the jobs aren't there. Everything I read and everyone I talk to says that even if they were, I would probably hate the work anyway (I can't stand LLMs or the code they produce).
So I guess I'm retired now.
> While dramatic, the June drop brings the participation rate among these prime-age workers back to a level consistent with those of recent years.
nothing to note unless it continues to drop
People prefer cutting expenses and expectations (nobody in their 30-40s buys a house for example). Businesses cannot find labor or customers. So it is a downward spiral.
Everyone loses.
Nothing to see here, just another one of those things that hasn't happened since the Nixon Recession.
Coincidentally at a time when government economists made adjustments to statistical reporting to also include stepwise offsets and discontinuities, specifically to "compensate" for a new paradigm that could not be ignored because of how much worse things would look if calculated the "old" way.
1. middle upper class
2. college educated at a top 75 college
3. tall, decent looking
are just not working regular corporate 9 to 5s and get by with consulting, small businesses, living off parents, living off nothing, scammy startups
w2 9-5 is straight up not worth it, even in the 150-300k range
Somehow my grandfather did this as a painter.
Inflation is a killer.
I don't think they're saying $150-300K will be easy, but it should be doable in raising 3 kids if you make sacrifices:
1. Seriously cut down on vacations. As an example, in the first 19 years of my life I slept in a hotel for perhaps 10 nights total (over 3 separate vacations). We did not feel at all deprived. Those who do are definitely "keeping up with the Joneses".
2. Don't buy new (or even recent) cars. Once your kids are old enough to ditch the booster seat, a Camry or Accord sized car is plenty.
3. Eliminate most subscriptions and streaming services.
4. No private schools.
5. Birthday parties for kids: Keep the budget low. It's OK not to offer a meal. Cake and snacks is fine. Limited/no decoration. Just get a good cake and stuff for them to play with.
6. Eat out only on special occasions. When I was a kid, we'd get junk food once a week, and everything else was home cooked. Actual dine-in "proper" restaurants? Perhaps oncea year. Learn recipes that can be cooked quickly.
7. Don't live in SV or Boston.
8. No, you don't need to get furniture for every room in the house (if you have a decent sized house). Have a 5 (or even 10) year plan for adding furniture and other niceties to the house.
9. If the yard is expensive to maintain, stop maintaining it if you can get away with it.
10. Don't pay more than $400 for a phone, and keep it for at least 3 years (my last one was bought for less and lasted 7 years). Only buy used phones.
The part that probably craters all of the above is medical issues (high premiums + deductibles). I offer no solution for you.
(I break a lot of these rules, but I also don't complain - I know where my problem lies).
Unfortunately, the last 10-15 years has truly shifted what was once a low or middle tier CoL area into a higher tier. The Carolina Lowcountry went from hidden gem to a playground for the rich, or as a friend once put it “Antebellum Disneyland.”
I’ve used the example in other areas - my first team lead bought his house at 300k and sold it for over 1M last year. You just can’t compete anymore, I get similar stories from my Nashville and Texas colleagues.
The only winning move is to not play.
Yikes. How big is the house?
I assure you that I live in an above average COL area, and with $200K it's doable. With $300K you can get most of the luxuries I mentioned in the list (but won't retire early).
more and more people are just choosing not to play that game
The CTO himself owned a home a couple blocks off of the beach in one of the most desirable ZIP codes in my state. I, myself, best I could hope for on that salary is a plywood DR Horton house 20+ miles upriver in a neighborhood that gets robbed weekly by “Kia Boys.”
What was once a very desirable, very secure job became a joke thanks to failing wages and rampant inflation. Best-worst option was a remote job for a mid-salary and move to the sticks, pay off the house fast, and try to coast that remote lifestyle as long as possible.