> But if you've not yet seen a deceleration

We have though. The velocity remains high but the acceleration is decreasing.

The improvement between gpt 2-4 where staggering. to 5, 5.6? Much less so.

The results improve of course, but the difference is no longer mind blowing.

Most of the improvement now has come from agentic harnessing, which is unrelated to the acceleration of the model but the tooling around the use of the model.

So we are seeing a deceleration and the speed is still high due to high prev acceleration but its not growing at the same rate as before and the edges are starting to show themselves