I expect we can squeeze a lot more exponential out of LLMs because they’ve basically shown that human “consciousness,” insofar as it’s composed of knowledge and rules for synthesizing that knowledge, can be represented mathematically in a very high dimensional space. Why does this “just work?” Nobody really knows, but it clearly does.

However, I also expect this squeeze will come at an increasingly expensive price — not just because of inefficient token usage, but because of fundamental limitations of LLMs as a model.

LLMs are letting us brute force our way through a lot of reasoning, but it’s hard to believe that such a generic model of intelligence will take us to the next frontier. We’ll need some fundamentally new approaches at some point. Maybe those will make achieving the exponential more efficient or maybe they’ll unlock even higher degrees of possibility. Who knows?