Show HN: FutureSearch, AI forecasting you can verify
futuresearch.ai
AI forecasting is now approximately superhuman. Today, FutureSearch is exiting our long public beta and launching.
We started FutureSearch in August 2023. (We’re the original AI forecasting company, at least in a Tetlock-ian, “forecast anything” sense.) We’re currently #1 of 194 in the most competitive AI forecasting tournament [1], and we score above the #3 and #2 human forecasters in the premier mixed human-bot tournaments [2].
Many people on HN seem to equate forecasting with prediction markets and finance. FutureSearch is not a financial tool, in the same way that “deep research” is not a financial tool. Yes, we do evaluate our forecaster on prediction markets [3]. But forecasting is about being as accurate about the future as possible, and the real game is in forecasting scientific progress, geopolitics, and the future of humanity. Our founding team came from Metaculus, where we pushed human forecasting to the limit on questions like when AGI would arrive. At. FutureSearch, we co-authored the AI 2027 timeline forecast, where we predicted superhuman coding and research would come around 2032, longer than the other authors, but still shorter than skeptics [4].
Thousands of people used the FutureSearch beta and ran >10k high-effort forecasts, on all sorts of diverse topics. Ask it anything about the future. We now support decision forecasts too: “If I do X, will I achieve this outcome?”
Forecasting, as a capability, is useful even at the level of expert human crowds. But we predict that we will soon have strongly superhuman forecasting. People who bet against AI capability trend lines tend to lose, and the trend line in AI forecast accuracy tells a pretty clear story [5]. There’s no reason to think the best human forecasters have figured out everything predictable about the world. There’s a lot more signal to be found.
And if you’re skeptical, try it. We’ve seen our fair share of exaggerated claims about AI forecasting accuracy [6]. So part of the reason we made the free tier give a few of our highest effort forecasters free is to let anyone verify the quality.
[1] https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/summer-futureeval-2026/ [2] evals.futuresearch.ai [3] markets.futuresearch.ai [4] https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast [5] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-ai-superforecasters-are... [6] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGkRcHqatmPkvpGLq/contra-pap...