This really needs to be calibrated to the type of work and complexity.
I can actually believe that LLMs would speed up basic web dev work in small, simple codebases 10X for simple requests.
These conversations usually turn into people talking past each other because they’re working on different things. For other less routine and more complex work, expecting a 10X productivity boost is not realistic at all. It doesn’t matter how good you get at writing prompts and reviewing plans. LLMs just don’t solve everything for you in a good way. Some times the true nature of the problem is revealed while implementing it and by deferring everything to an LLM you spend days throwing tokens at the wrong thing. There is a lot of work where the LLM speed up comes from helping you quickly search docs and codebases and double check your code, but handing the entire thing off to an LLM isn’t reasonable. These tasks aren’t going to reach this mythical 10X productivity boost that is genuinely achievable for much simpler work.