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Comment by Animats | Hacker News Reader

The next demand for those trades will be for war plants.

For those who haven't noticed, the US/Israel/Iran war and the Ukraine/Russia war just merged. Countries currently shooting at each other: Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Israel, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait... See the lead story in the New York Times for the past two days.

This war has crossed an important threshold. No pair of countries, one on each side, can stop the war now. The US and Iran can no longer stop it alone. Ukraine and Russia can no longer stop it alone. This is very like WWI - too many combatants with differing motivations. This much isn't a projection. This is the current reality.

It looks like a long war. Expect a very large, expensive military buildup. That's going to need war plants, built in a hurry. Ammunition. Weapons. Drones by the millions.

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Most of these countries have been participating in bombing or getting bombed on and off for the last decade (and longer).

You are reading too much into the current media hype cycle, and not really reading the geopolitics in place, which puts a lot of pressure internally on these countries to not escalate further. This includes both Ukraine / Russia and the middle east which you are so eager to tie together on the slightest connection.

While i agree that the poster is reading way too much into this, i'm not sure about the geopolitics.

Iran is friends with Russia and has helped them with their weapons program in the past. None of the countries allied with Ukraine like Iran. Iran (and its allies) have almost no ability to counter strike Ukraine.

Ukraine picking a fight with Iran, or at least stopping their boats from visiting Russian ports, seems like a strategy Ukraine could plausibly persue without too much downside.

yeah I assume they've done the cost-benefit and figured that if Russia gets the supplies they'll be hurt more than however much Iran can possibly retaliate - Iran does have missiles that can hit Israel so I do have to question whether they can hit Ukraine - it's not that much further - but may very well be worth it to the Ukrainians to take whatever Iran can dish than what Russia could do with the shipments. And with Iran already at war, I doubt Iran wants to spend the effort to retaliate more than whatever they consider the necessary token amount.

Ukraine fighting Iran has a benefit for Ukraine as well in terms of US perception ... the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Makes it harder for MAGA types like Tucker Carlson to sell the idea that actually Russia is the US's friend.

> Iran does have missiles that can hit Israel so I do have to question whether they can hit Ukraine

True, but those are probably in relatively short supply for them at this point. I'd imagine they would want to save them for Israel.

Would you be able to recommend any articles or videos that do a deeper more honest analysis than the current media hype cycle?

I'm not the poster, but personally i have found William Spaniel's youtube channel to be good.

Today: Iran drones strike a gas storage tanker in Egypt. Yemen's Houthis are attacking Saudi Arabia from Iraq.

> For those who haven't noticed, the US/Israel/Iran war and the Ukraine/Russia war just merged.

In what way?

> No pair of countries, one on each side, can stop the war now. The US and Iran can no longer stop it alone. Ukraine and Russia can no longer stop it alone.

It seems to me like you’re undermining your point here. No two sides can stop it alone because they are separate conflicts. The US and Iran can agree to stop fighting. Ukraine and Russia can do the same. The reason they don’t affect each other is because they’re separate conflicts.

Well, no, because those aren't the actual parties of the conflicts.

In the case of USA/Iran the US is essentially Israel's proxy. It's up to Israel to decide when the fighting stops. OK, fine, Iran could capitulate and essentially stop being a country. They'll get right on that.

In the case of Ukraine/Russia Ukraine is a US+EU proxy. It is up to the EU leadership to decide when the fighting stops. OK, fine, Russia could capitulate and stop being a country. They'll get right on that.

> > For those who haven't noticed, the US/Israel/Iran war and the Ukraine/Russia war just merged.

> In what way?

Presumably they are referencing Ukraine recently shooting an Iranian (i believe) merchant ship.

However its kind of silly to say the wars have merged based on a single incident. We dont even know if it was intentional.

Wait who is Egpyt, Bahrain and Kuwait shooting at?

Also why would you not include Afghanistan and its war with Pakistan or China's various diplomatic issues with its neighbors?

Why would you ignore all the wars and conflict going on in rest of the African continent?

Your comment come across trying to piece together a particular vision of world conflicts that maps neatly into suiting a narrative. You say its the current reality but its only a slice of the current reality and a lot of it is factually wrong.

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