Come on, we're not _that_ stupid. Their alarmist tones are the height of hypocrisy when they do release powerful models after spelling doom. Their safeguards and guardrails have been broken countless times - let's see if _this_ time the jailbreak detection in J-space actually puts a stop to them. But - really - they have trillions at stake, which evaporate once their edge is commoditized and inference providers have a near-equivalent product for much less. They're firing on all PR and lobbying cylinders to delay that just enough for their IPO to succeed, and leave investors holding the bag - I'd be terrified of their inclusion in tons of pension funds which track S&P500 or whatever they'll end up with (SpaceX, should the actual floating shares increase, and OpenAI worry me just as much).
On my second point: it happened, it keeps happening, it will keep happening all the time, and it's not new. Incredibly bright individual researchers, dodgy companies and state actors discovered, weaponized and traded vulns for, I don't know, 15 years before LLMs got involved? And it's not like they are out of a job now. The multiplier effect is not lost on me, but the fallout from even Mythos so far has been.... not that much, really? And I'm not completely ignorant there - I am security-adjacent and have close colleagues who specialize in that.
Also, indeed I know that a powerful open weight model in malicious hands is worse than OpenAI doing a whoopsie and cutting access off once they eventually realize it. But even a closed weight frontier model served by a non-US aligned entity could serve the purpose - and while I'm thinking of China, I do wonder what Russia may do - they used to be really good at this stuff and their leaders are not exactly the friendliest bunch around. Or India, or Iran, I hear they're a bit angry lately. Unlikely but let's say they develop or acquire the capability (ultimately it's some hardware + one leak away even for closed models). Asking them politely to stop may not be effective. Western society may pay the price of applying the brake and find itself out...modeled? is that a word? Because 2 guys called Sam and Dario, and their early investors, really want those returns? Come on we're not discussing the greater good here - it's a bunch of greedy guys trying to pull the ladder up after themselves. You do realize that, right?
Do we really owe them a moat?