Comment by LogicFailsMe | Hacker News Reader

Comment by LogicFailsMe | Hacker News Reader

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"The biggest thing we’ve learned from the large language model generation is how many people are excited to replace human beings, and how many people just don’t understand labour of any kind"

Really? I think we've heard C-suite blabbermouths and borderline nontechnical tech CEOs being amplified by social media making these assertions, but boy did the weakly efficient market deliver a relatively swift correction to that mindset, no?

Q: "What would it take to change your point of view?" A: "[AI] would have to solve all hallucinations forever, which they are completely incapable [of]."

Can you produce a human that is infallible? I'll wait.

Finally: https://martinalderson.com/posts/no-it-doesnt-cost-anthropic...

My hot take is AI is increasingly less unprofitable as the cost of serving tokens drops and Nvidia's ongoing offers to guarantee profitability is a sign that it isn't stopping anytime soon.

https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/nvidia-gpu-debt-backst...

You either believe in the underlying science and technology or you don't. But in a world where AI is a fad like cabbage patch kids and beanie babies, what's next?

> But in a world where AI is a fad like cabbage patch kids and beanie babies

AI will almost certainly not be a fad for software developers, or at the very least for web developers, but it's certainly possible that other industries will look back on "experimental AI days" and chuckle.

Even if there is a financial bubble (that pops), the technology is still not going away.

As for what's next, I dunno. I've heard people talking about similar tech that doesn't use neural nets/etc, but that is out of my wheelhouse.

The possibility of AI sticking around is apparently pretty threatening to the Zitron cult or what seemed like an innocuous response wouldn't be in such negative territory so quickly.

But I think AI is here to stay and it has already proven useful. And sure, we will look back on today's models like we look back upon Gordon Gekko and his giant early cell phone. And I cannot fathom how one can not separate AI the science and technology from AI tech bros and CEOs. I agree the latter are going to go through some things as the AGI fails to arrive on their schedule, but IMO there's no turning back on the technology nor should there be.

> But I think AI is here to stay and it has already proven useful.

Yes, I said as much. I've said this is two other places in this thread, but when they are talking AI being useful, they aren't just talking about for software development. The software industry is seeing far more AI adoption, by a very large margin, than any other industry, and the success of the current companies hinges on it being heavily adopted everywhere. I don't really care to defend Zitron because he does speak out of his lane far too much, especially when it comes to software, and those are the points the HN crowd latches onto. But that's not the bulk of what he talks about.

So then what is the deadline for AI reaching into all these new industries (or are you asserting it will never happen)? And you're right, technical people latch onto him sounding like a horse's ass on technical subjects and why shouldn't they? IMO this isn't the same as Elon's endless empty FSD promises (which I called out the whole danged time from the beginning FWIW), but I get why people assume it is, I just don't agree.

I didn't have a lot sympathy for the guy who described the Internet as a series of tubes yet I believe Al Gore caught far more flack for that bit about inventing the Internet than he deserved given the inventor of the Internet defended that very claim.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore_and_information_techno...

So if the bulk of what Zitron's talking about is valid, then what are the main points that aren't self-evident i.e. there's definitely either a buildout or a bubble in CapEx and only time will answer that question, not hot air and blatant market manipulation. What is he bringing to the conversation that we're all missing? Seriously, educate me.

Sorry, you're taking this up way too many notches for me to want to continue this convo. But as I said, I have no interested in defending Zitron in general, I made no claims about him being groundbreaking, and I don't even take him too seriously. I was responding to your points around AI's usefulness and how the discussion is almost always localized around "AI as a software development tool" here on HN. For me he's just a soothing counter-voice to the awful and inescapable hype and doomerism coming straight from the American AI companies themselves (as well as people I've been forced to interact with in the programming community). He does show numbers about why he thinks some of them aren't aren't going to survive. This is all speculative (not sure why I feel I have to say this but I feel I do).

> So then what is the deadline for AI reaching into all these new industries?

Obviously the "deadline" would before the US companies go bust (again, IF they do). And I'm confused about your use of "new" here but I'm going to assume you mean "other existing industries that haven't adopted yet." The discussions around this are that several industries already jumped on AI then walked it back, so it's more that we're already past the "reaching in" stage. I don't have links for you but there have been several articles about companies firing people "because AI" then hiring them back. I suppose AI drive-thru order takers would work as another example. Again, I don't have the numbers on this myself. And again-again, none of this is "in defence of Ed Zitron" or "this is why Ed Zitron is great" or any such thing, but these are the things he talks about (and once again, no, it's nothing groundbreaking).

So saying you like his vibes and feels is cool, thanks, genuinely. FWIW I avoid AI shills and doomers myself and focus on developing my skills working with the technology. The comp for that doesn't suck either.

That, and he has numbers to back up the possible downfall. My issue with AI is how it's used in art and content generation. I resisted it for code for a while, but eventually came around.

> FWIW I avoid AI shills and doomers myself and focus on developing my skills working with the technology.

I did a bit of that but I'm no longer employed and have been taking a break from programming for a few months.

>he has numbers to back up the possible downfall.

Those sorts of numbers apply to the common folk like you and me IMO.

They do not apply to the billionaire class. They just don't. The CapEx play either pays out when the buildout is justified or it soft lands for them with a bailout like we just saw NVDA do today with OpenAI. No matter what, in the end, we'll be holding any bar tab in our retirement accounts if they're being "managed." How many times must this game play out for the unchanging outcome to settle in?

What I do think is that datacenters will now end up in other less-regulated countries just like California's plastic "recycling" ends up getting burned as garbage in the third world. So there's that I guess.

https://www.thenewlede.org/2025/07/postcard-from-california-...

> Those sorts of numbers apply to the common folk like you and me IMO.

Oh, I understand that. I'm not American, but I know I will still be affected if this all goes bust. I'm not in the best state of mind right now, though, and the thought of everything burning to the ground isn't really concerning me.

Also, interesting article. I was aware about plastics getting shipped to other countries but had no idea they were starting to refuse.

So like I said, he's feeding you what you want to hear at this moment in your life. And I think a lot of people in the west feel similarly so it's viralAF. And even if it busts, your corrupt politicos can only let you suffer so much before the pitchforks and rope emerge so it will be contained. 2008 sucked and the failure to clean it up and punish the guilty is the road to 2026, but even now, AI is a well compensated skill in an age of agents that isn't that hard to pick up after you've processed whatever is going on with you.

I don't think the AGI is nigh, it may even be far, but there was an article today that demonstrated something close to the path I've long believed AI will take into industry and it scares the Bejesus out of Anthropic and OpenAI because it reduces them to glorified neoclouds in the long run if one can replicate this process with open weight models. And oh no, Dario Amodei and his ilk will have to settle for being centi-millionaires. Tragic.

https://fermisense.com/when-machines-take-the-wheel/

> So like I said, he's feeding you what you want to hear at this moment in your life.

Yep! I'm a pretty self-aware dude, I like to think :)

The YouTuber I actually pay attention to is House of El who is an up-and-comer, doesn't pander to either side of the debate, and is very pro-AI software engineer. She also shows her work.

> 2008 sucked and the failure to clean it up and punish the guilty is the road to 2026

I'm in Canada which was not hit as hard but ya, I hope your next administration actually holds the guilty accountable. Though I've seen people loudly argue that will result in an endless war of retaliation? Honestly, I only started paying real attention to American politics in January 2025.

> I don't think the AGI is nigh, it may even be far

Not according to Sam Altman as of today! Just in the nick of time too when the cheap Chinese models showed up! What luck! XD

I have not yet read the article you shared but have it opened in a tab for later. Probably should have waited to respond until later but trying to reduce my screen time today.

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