I think Ed's argument is that given the infra investment the revenue won't be enough to pay back the original investors. In fact cheaper models make this worse for them. Who cares about the investors? Well it turns out the infra was financed in large part by debt that was securitized and a bunch of regarded investors that bought the debt looking for higher returns will be taking a huge haircut when the bubble pops. The amount of securitized debt is roughly the same as the mortgage backed securities back on 2007, ergo the prediction is a big recession.

What's unclear to me is if this is a systemic issue that's going to cause credit to freeze up but imo the opacity of the shadow banking "system" does not help here. If you see one cockroach, etc.