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war with nato means he can more easily convince the russian public to go along with mobilization

russians arent excited to go die in ukraine, but defending the homeland from NATO is a different story

The oligarchs aren't the ones controlling Putin, it's the other way around. But yes, escalation with NATO is a very poor idea, given Russia's struggles with a single non-NATO country.

I belive it's the other way around only up to a point. If the situation gets too bad, I believe they have the resources to overthrow him.

Regime security for Putin in an escalation/mass mobilisation situation is high. The chances of the Russian economy surviving are poor.

Often economic crisis leads to less regime security, not more. Why would it be different in Russia?

Watch the video in the link and it is quite well explained there.