OAI waits until overall cluster demand goes down before giving out a reset, they just happen to have much more spare capacity than Anthropic.
I don’t think Codex’s 99.98% uptime vs Claude Code’s 99.44%, is just due to OAI having more hardware to run it on.
Having too much demand on limited servers means that less of those servers are going to be available for redundancy.
we are in the "millennial lifestyle subsidy" era for AI where companies ruthlessly undercut each other in an attempt to win marketshare, before then ratcheting up prices
https://qz.com/openai-investor-memo-compute-advantage-anthro...
There's less clear info about this from Anthropic's side, but given their frequent issues and lack of resets and overall less usage given to users on their subscriptions plans, it's a pretty simple conclusion to draw.
You can also get a drift of it in their announcements - OpenAI has been far more aggressive in datacenter build-out partnerships as a more top-down allocation strategy since 2024, and Anthropic has rented out existing compute from infrastructure-heavy companies that are losing the model race in what seems like a more desperate ad-hoc compute acquisition strategy.
In all, Dario’s conservatism was in service of not going bankrupt, but any inspection of his argument that an overallocation of compute a year too early results in bankruptcy falls flat: there’s so much demand for mechanized intelligence in the world today that it’s easy to rent out compute if you have too great a supply.
[1]: recall that he was trying to court the saudis into investing $1T to build his own chips
Though Dario's reasoning still applies this year, as the scale keeps increasing. Very interesting to know how it will go.
> it's not like they haven't thought about doing the obvious.