These are always cherry-picked, though. They tell you about the 1/10 that went really impressively, ignoring the other 9 shots at the task where the clanker started to try selling tungsten cubes (in person, wearing a blue shirt).
I would not hand wave that away - but Claude 5 feels closer to Claude 1 than the hypothetical Claude 7 you propose. I do not believe one can extrapolate LLMs that far ahead despite the very substantial progress so far.
The case for AI is also weakened when the model is steered by an expert.
Very similar story with security research, LLM's are a super useful tool while hunting vulnerabilities, but it turns out when the entire software industry starts throwing tens of billions of dollars at vuln. research, a lot of stuff gets unearthed, something security people have been insisting on for years and complaining that their work is underfunded and under-resourced.
Sadly, general public (us) is never seeing that model
I don't believe in all the LLm is AI is AGI dream, it's too easy to trigger failure case that show a lack of basic thinking no matter how good they do on these tests. But I also can recognize the insane things that are made possible by them.
PS: I believe llm true power comes from hive/ant behavior, that's why we're so amazed by goal and agentic and sub agent
PS2: it's rather easy to figure out when we're there : when they can /goal it into improving itself until it does strictly better than itself at those benchmark, they've essentially reached mini singularity.