Marc Andreesen on Charlie Rose. Something for everyone here.
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video.google.com
As a materials scientist, I have to wonder whether the next disruptive force will come from something in the physical form or take a virtual form. Of course these things are impossible to predict, but its fascinating to look at how technology is innovating within my field.
For example, one idea that I hear often is a shift from the printing paper industry (which I agree is a dead industry) to a printing electronics industry. There is no reason why this technology cannot be re-used to innovate another industry that is taking another form. There is huge potential in organic electronics and printable displays.
Similarly, I believe optics are poised for an "it works" button, as Andreesen says. We've already seen the benefits of fiber optics as tremendously fast information travel, but we're ready to see optical computing and other advanced imaging techniques come into the mainstream.
Lastly, we're going to see much more intelligent applications of past ideas. In the past, people would keep to their respective disciplines and innovate within them. Now, everyone is adopting multiple disciplines. We're seeing people who use quantum chemistry to make new materials, intelligent computing and statistics to organize information, and old materials techniques to revolutionize medicine.
If you don't re-train in multiple fields, you will be left in the dust. This is how innovation will continue in the future.
"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." -Arthur C. Clarke's 3rd law of Prediction
I believe when/if we get to the point that mobile electronics are disposable and/or able to be personally fabricated in a couple minutes that will be a stepping stone (e.g. personal technology no longer a commodity but close to free.). And, add in the matrix (e.g. blending virtual reality with reality [augmented reality] and or redefining reality [the Meta-verse from [Stephenson's Snow Crash"]) and we will be close to living in a world we can only imagine now.
I recommend MIT's Technology Review. I was a long-time subscriber but just let it run out.
Even though I don't like advertising generally, I'd much rather look at a well-crafted Nike / Apple creative than the weight loss / degree mill tribal fusionish junk they run now.
My guess is the ad system they have now is just to test the waters... get the team learning the ins and outs, improving the system's algorithms and reporting capabilities, etc. Running branded ads is much more of a significant move: they're clearly ads, and not so much some sort of pseudo-relevant text ad. In other words, branded ads are much harder (as a user) to ignore, and would lead to a stifle in growth -- the absolute last thing that Facebook wants.
The fact that Facebook doesn't consider 175 million users to be a sufficient audience for revenu should tell you something about the scale of company they (believe) are running and funding.
If you take his qualifier into account, yeah, maybe he could be right.
1. He says you can build companies with "almost no money": $100k - $1M, if I recall correctly.
2. He says you can delay profi^H^H^H^H^H revenue almost indefinitely by looking out on the horizon.
So given these two facts, when exactly do the founders/managers/employees (all of which are young kids by his own admission) start getting paid real money, like the amount required to buy a house in the Santa Clara valley?
Is payoff 100% contingent on a liquidity event and/or perpetual venture capitalization, thereby diluting founders' capital stock further and further? Are his venture founders supposed to continue living in apartments indefinitely while he looks on from his mansion in Atherton and architects the final vision to be realized a decade or more from assignment of preferred stock?
His whole management vision starts to look more and more like serfdom the longer you think about it. The immediate analog that springs to mind is the A&R practices of the music industry in which they sign young, naive bands to contracts that essentially bind them into a period of servitude under the guise of a promise of fame and fortune (to be realized in spades at a later date TBD, just trust us guys, you're gonna be rich and famous!!!) while paying for their operating costs with a future claim on earnings.
This comparison only gets stronger than it already is when you realize that most financially successful musicians make their money from touring and merchandising - realizing their own revenue in small, and sometimes incremental ways until they get a successful fan/customer base.
I mean the whole analogy seems rather obvious to me, and I believe we as (young entrepreneurs of) an industry should learn the lessons of the music/entertainment industry - am I totally wrong here?
I see no difference between Marc Andreesen and David Geffen. Except one lives in SF and one lives in LA.
Making it obviously includes a liquidity even, but it can also include great success pre-revenue and/or pre-profit. How do you think senior management at Ning is doing, salary-wise? Howabout Twitter? Digg?
The serfdom remark is just wrong. It's not serfdom-- it's sharing risk. He's risking a pile of (admittedly someone else's) money. You're risking... absolutely nothing if you're getting paid close to market rates. The closer you get to a sure thing that everyone is going to get rich (or at least get all of their cash back), the more entitled you are a market rate salary.
No one is forcing you to accept his terms. You lose nothing by punting your own startup a few years into it and getting a job at any time-- except whatever you haven't vested.
A venture round contractually binds you, does it not? I mean that's the word they use - legally binding.