SpaceX at $100 Would Imply Zero AI Value, Morgan Stanley Says
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
There is no underlying fundamental reason that makes stock price match company performance or value. It’s a gambling market that sometimes happens to match real financials
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/buffett-to...
In the new world order the winners are not value investors and rational actors. The winners are the outrageous, the titillating, anyone who can capture a bit of attention span.
And the industry could not exist without a strong foundation of suckers.
"Everyone thinks" but not for no reason. Henry Kissinger was one way Elizabeth Holmes made everyone think.
Of course there is, at least as a floor: M&A.
Their current plan is the same as that shoe company that tried to rent out their warehouse space for AI compute.
Same plan as Meta, other than scammers using meta AI to scam our parents out of their money. (Meta makes billions off of this use case and really shouldn't)
Low margins, lots of garbage participants, and a few competent players who are likely to crush anyone less efficient. That doesn't look very remunerative.
If anything, the anti-datacenter NIMBYism that the AI craze is generating will far outlast the AI craze, and NIMBYism is the only thing that would make launching datacenters into space cost effective, so Space X may get a long-term boost out of the whole ordeal, whether or not they have internal success in the AI market.
And then there's all the competition
Perhaps, but the size of the launch market is still unknown at any given price point. Space hotels? Really expensive point-to-point 45 minute deliveries in a vehicle hard to distinguish from an ICBM on an early warning radar? High-value-low-volume free-fall manufacturing? All comes down to what the price tag is.
(And right now, don't even look at Starship until that actually delivers, look at Falcon 9: SpaceX has had so little confidence in the Starship hardware that despite 13 launches it has yet to be given a circularised orbit, this suggests development is much slower and more difficult than Falcon was).
> If anything, the anti-datacenter NIMBYism that the AI craze is generating will far outlast the AI craze, and NIMBYism is the only thing that would make launching datacenters into space cost effective, so Space X may get a long-term boost out of the whole ordeal, whether or not they have internal success in the AI market.
Could be, but space is hard even compared to otherwise hard options like the middle of the Sahara, and solutions to cooling in space also work in the Sahara.