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Comment by jimnotgym | Hacker News Reader

If I were nearing retirement and had a decent pension pot where I could control it in fine detail...I would be diversifying away from tech stocks and holding some cash for immediate needs. There probably won't be much time when it unravels...I wouldn't be over exposed to the Nasdaq 100, for instance. Although you could probably pick some AI safe companies out of it.

The real problem will be figuring out where all this debt is

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The problem is 1) the Nasdaq 100 is where the majority of gains are coming from, and 2) it very well might be another 3+ years before anything unravels, if it unravels at all.

If you're truly at retirement, absolutely cycle out. But if you're still young and trying to maximize portfolio growth, it's not obvious that a non-tech strategy would yield better returns.

You should have at least some money outside of tech to hedge though. There are "everything but tech" mutual funds and ETFs, and I keep about 15% of my investments in there.

It's a really good point, and you will have time for the recovery.

But counterpoint, the S&P 100 gained over 24% this year. FTSE gained nearly 18%. Still good gains vs inflation!

Another thing to remember - rebounds are highly compressed. If you try to get out ahead of a downturn, you will not only likely mistime your exit but also miss the rebound. It can keep going down or stay flat for sometime. But when it rebounds, it does so quickly [1].

Don't try to be too smart. Especially if this is not your full time job. The market is not rational. Dollar cost averaging and proper risk allocation is the way.

[1]https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-con... & https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/wealth-management-i... (if you prefer an additional source)

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