If they continue investing in compute, memory, memory bandwidth, network infrastructure, etc. it makes a relevant contribution of progress in all of these fields which I will leverage.
A small form factor PC with 100gb fast memory and being able to run something like sonnet or opus level LLM would be massive.
I have so many things i want to do and still sitting it out due to cost.
I don't see how this will benefit the consumer, but I might be missing some second order effect?
I want to hope that this money will lead to more capacity, more R&D and lower prices in the long term again.
Nvidia would have changed its GPU strategy a long time ago if the demand wouldn't be real. They still can afford the GPU prices. But memory is not a monopoly.
For memory though i do assume a lot more people and companies want a massive amount more memory than ever before. I have 64gb in my pc for a few years now, i was quite happy with that. It became a no brainer. But today? Hey give me 100, 300 and even more. I really want to run bigger LLM models locally.
For the moment.
There are several ways that ordinary investors and even simple pension holders could end up stuck with the downside of this.
The debt risk hidden in CDOs wasn't your debt either but if you had a pension plan, the crisis absolutely cost you money you would have earned, and in many cases pension fund values dropped by five to ten per cent within a year.
The SPV/CDO comparison being made is by no means exact, but hidden debt at this scale surprising analysts tends to cause problems. If more institutions are severely exposed than anyone thought, it is bad.
Especially since any success strategy is predicated on literally unbelievably rosy predictions.
10 years ago i watched a talk about the problem of compute vs. memory. Compute increased significantly while memory speed did not.
This gigantic investment will solve this problem.
So either this blows and we will have way too much capacity which will lead to cheap and mass amount of memory for everyone + cheap GPUs again OR AGI. So win - win.
all three major remaining players in the mem sector have already tried in the past to collude for memory price fixing.
this is the first time I'm rooting for chinese chip tech to reach more or less parity.
Neither was AIG's, until we all woke up one day and suddenly it was
Your view seems very myopic.
AFAIK they have heavily relaxed the rules for IPO. Pension funds are practically forced to buy from the top-100 companies, and these companies risk crashing much more than the others.
SpaceX value is already lower than at launch. If this costs are externalized to the common public, this will be your debt.
All these companies are too big to fail, in an environment where you can buy pardons and laws.
Hell, a 3T$ crash will have global repercussion and probably partially crash many other countries, too.
How much real impact is this really though?
But minimal real impact
I don't know how specifically significant SpaceX being lower than at launch is, because actually most IPOs underperform the market and their own targets for the first three to five years. What is happening to it is not that unusual; its overvaluation is.
I do think there is a major risk here, and ordinary investors and pension holders will be hurt.
I am not sure any individual AI company is too big to fail, though probably one of the big two will be rescued, most likely Anthropic. I think OpenAI will fail, and it'll be stripped for parts. As will Oracle, who are overexposed to it.