Hacker News Reader

Comment by nl | Hacker News Reader

On RAM supplies, the best estimates I've seen are https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/cxmt-close-t...

They are estimating a 25% shortfall in supply remaining in 2030, even with Chinese companies ramping up DDR5 supply.

It's not looking great - the RAM producers need more of the same machines that other semi-conductor manufactures need and the suppliers of those seem unable to increase production.

View on HN

It's good to know that despite warnings of a shortage in 2024, little was done in advance to prepare and now we're looking at years of shortfall for both commercial and consumer needs. Export controls preventing fab equipment being sold to China will likely extend it further. It will be interesting to see how much consumer electronics companies will be able to raise prices before people call it quits. Especially with the new normal of electronics getting more expensive post-release instead of less (eg, the PS5).

I think it's important to note the context though: There had been a RAM glut that meant Micron lost money every quarter in 2023, with revenue almost halving vs 2022. This was post-pandemic, and demand had dropped a huge amount.

The RAM companies didn't have money to invest.

https://www.chiplog.io/p/dram-was-the-worst-business-in-chip...

> the RAM producers need more of the same machines that other semi-conductor manufactures need and the suppliers of those seem unable to increase production

I suspect that it is very, very profitable for them not to increase production and instead increase prices.

This is one of those cases where the free market fails and governments should step-in. IP laws are there to elevate the arts and sciences, not stifle them in the name of profit.

> IP laws are there to elevate the arts and sciences, not stifle them in the name of profit.

Hmmmmmmmmm

I mean, that's what the US constitution says very plainly. It does seem to be a pretty unpopular take these days though.

"To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries."

"To protect the children, ...."

The government invented intellectual property for a reason, and in this context it isn't serving it's puprose. It's not some natural law or inalienable right, it's a government monopoly that trades public rights for scientific progress.

The reason of copyright has always been to protect the current powers. To promote usefull arts has always been a whitewash. Here's e.g. wikipedia on that topic:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_copyright

  ... works of dissent and criticism could also circulate rapidly. As a consequence, governments established controls over printers ...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com