Microsoft has to be shaking. For the first time in three-or-so decades they were finally involved in something big when it happened instead of being years behind everyone else. If this crashes they're going to have people jumping out of windows.
Their stock hasn't really seen much upside from this whole AI thing, so I don't really see how they'd get punished that badly. At least they have a public cloud business where they can rent out capacity to reduce the loss.
Maybe if OpenAI goes bankrupt, they might be punished more. Or it could be an opportunity for them to scavenge. Oracle is a lot more fucked if that happens.
So the day after the bubble bursts you'd see exactly this: a very recent very sharp drop, preceded by 12 months of solid gains.